Israel’s chief of staff has issued a stark warning that the Israel Defense Forces face a growing shortage of combat troops that could degrade readiness within a year unless the government acts. In a strongly worded letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the defence minister and the Knesset security committee, Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir said the shortfall already runs into the thousands and will deepen unless the government changes service rules and pushes through contested legislation.
Zamir singled out three converging problems: a frozen legislative agenda on Haredi exemptions from conscription, delays in implementing longer mandatory service for new recruits, and lingering effects from the intense security environment of the past two years. He warned that the combination of those factors has produced “unprecedented” stress on manpower systems, and that a failure to extend the term of compulsory male service to 36 months — including retroactive application — would harm training quality and force structure.
The chief’s intervention comes amid an acrimonious domestic debate over draft exemptions for Haredi Jews. Proposals in the Knesset would exempt thousands of Haredi young men from military duty, while a judicial ruling has insisted that the government enforce the conscription law and hold draft dodgers accountable. Zamir’s letter frames the legislative stalemate and potential expansion of exemptions as direct threats to operational capability.
Beyond legal and political wrangling, the warning is practical: the IDF estimates a shortfall of several thousand combat troops at a time when demand for manpower is elevated. Extended operations, high tempo training and mobilisations since October 2023 have increased force attrition and placed heavier burdens on existing units. Without changes to recruitment, retention or service length, the chief fears a measurable decline in combat readiness by next year and further deterioration through January 2027.
The dispute poses a dilemma for Israel’s government. Netanyahu relies on coalition partners from the Haredi parties whose electoral base opposes universal conscription, yet military leaders say exemptions and policy delays undermine national defence. Politicians face a trade-off between short-term political survival and long-term military capability, with the army publicly pressing for decisions that would be politically costly for the coalition.
If the government fails to act, the consequences reach beyond internal politics. A weaker IDF would have implications for deterrence against adversaries such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and for Israel’s operational flexibility across multiple fronts. Allies that supply arms and intelligence may be forced to recalibrate their expectations of Israel’s force-generation, while domestic strains over shared civic burden and the rule of law could intensify.
Policy options are limited but clear: extend compulsory service, enforce existing conscription laws, accelerate retention and recruitment incentives, or restructure force composition to rely more on technology and reserves. Each choice carries political and operational costs, and the clock that Zamir now explicitly set threatens to make some trade-offs unavoidable. The coming months will test whether Israel’s civilian leadership can reconcile coalition politics with military imperatives or whether the army’s warning presages an enduring erosion of readiness.