Mainland Chinese buyers pushed Hong Kong’s residential market into a clear upturn in 2025, reversing several years of muted activity. Local agencies report that purchasers whose names are registered in Mandarin pinyin accounted for roughly a quarter of private-deal records last year, with mainland-linked transactions totaling around HK$1.38–1.41 trillion — well above the levels seen before the government’s easing of housing curbs.
The mainland presence in Hong Kong’s market shows three distinct traits. Buyers favour newly launched developments: primary sales accounted for roughly half the mainland buyers’ transaction count and about six in ten of their spending, according to two leading agencies. They prize transit connectivity; projects along improved MTR lines and near the High-Speed Rail terminus at West Kowloon have been especially popular. And they appear relatively insensitive to price at the top end, taking a large share of deals in the ultra‑luxury segment.
Specific districts underline these patterns. Kai Tak, long promoted as a secondary growth hub close to the West Kowloon high‑speed terminal, was the city’s top primary‑sales district last year; mainland‑background buyers made up about 53% of its first‑hand transactions. On Hong Kong Island’s southern corridor, Wong Chuk Hang — once overlooked because of transport limits — recorded nearly a thousand first‑hand deals in 2025 after infrastructure improvements, with mainland buyers accounting for roughly 45% of those sales.
The luxury market is even more dominated by mainland money. For first‑hand units above HK$50 million, mainland buyers comprised about seven in ten known personal‑buyer cases. Their share remains substantial in the HK$20–50 million and HK$10–20 million bands as well, a pattern strengthened by policy changes such as the 2024 revision to the investment immigration scheme that explicitly permits residential purchases above certain price thresholds.
Several structural forces help explain the inflows. Hong Kong’s authorities have gradually rolled back some post‑2019 housing curbs, developers are discounting or promoting new stock to clear inventories, and the renewed vibrancy of the stock market — including record IPO fundraising — has created a “stock‑and‑property” momentum that wealth holders have been able to convert into real estate. Analysts also point to a nascent domestic demand boost from professionals who arrived under talent programmes in 2023–24 and may now be moving from renting to buying.
What this means for 2026 is not straightforward. On the one hand, continued mainland capital inflows could keep inventory falling and support prices, particularly for well‑located new projects and luxury units. Some agencies forecast mainland‑background transactions rising further, possibly north of 15,000 deals this year. On the other hand, the recovery heightens the market’s sensitivity to policy swings: a reversal of capital‑flow tolerance on the mainland, a change in Hong Kong’s cooling tools, or a sharp move in global interest rates could quickly reshape demand.
For residents and policymakers the trade‑offs are familiar. A healthier property market aids banks, developers and the government’s fiscal position, but it revives concerns about affordability and social pressure if domestic demand cannot keep pace. Observers say the next inflection points to watch are developer pricing strategies, mainland capital controls or guidance from Beijing, and whether the stock‑market boom proves durable enough to sustain the “north water” effect.