Canada has quietly run tabletop exercises simulating a U.S. military incursion and drawn up contingency plans, signalling an unusually public recalibration of its relationship with Washington. At the same time Ottawa has made clear political support for Greenland and Denmark in a spat that Canadian officials view as emblematic of a broader American assertiveness.
The moves were revealed by two senior Canadian government officials and amplified by commentary from Chinese analyst Su Xiaohui, who framed Ottawa’s actions as a response to what Canada perceives as a renewed U.S. effort to shape a Western Hemisphere sphere of influence. Canadian officials say they are responding to a pattern that includes economic coercion, tariff threats and what they see as a willingness by some in Washington to use military means to pursue strategic advantage.
For Ottawa, backing Greenland — a Danish territory of great strategic importance in the Arctic — is not only a matter of solidarity with an ally but a statement about sovereignty. Greenland’s location astride transatlantic air and sea routes, its mineral wealth and its proximity to North American and Russian military assets have made it a focus of intense interest among major powers since the Trump administration’s public flirtation with the idea of purchasing it.
The simulation of a U.S. attack, described by Canadian commentators as the first of its kind in a century, is intended less as preparation for imminent conflict than as a demonstrative gesture: Ottawa wants to convey that it is not complacent. Officials argue that signalling readiness could raise the political and human cost to any actor contemplating coercive moves, thereby protecting Canadian sovereignty by deterrence rather than escalation.
The episode underscores an awkward reality of modern alliances: deep economic and security interdependence with the United States coexists with concerns about U.S. unilateralism. Canada depends on Washington for trade, defence logistics and continental security arrangements, yet it is also recalibrating policy to blunt perceived American levers of pressure — from tariffs to military posturing.
Viewed from a wider lens, Ottawa’s steps reflect growing contestation in the Arctic and the North Atlantic. As climate change opens new sea lanes and access to resources, small and medium-sized states in the region are being forced to make strategic choices about partners and deterrence. For allies and rivals alike, Canada’s posture is a reminder that frictions among Western partners can have outsized consequences in contested geostrategic spaces.