Denmark Seeks Calm as NATO Drills and Troop Deployments Raise Stakes in Greenland

Denmark says it will continue talks with the United States while prioritising de-escalation, even as it hosts a long-running multinational NATO exercise in Greenland and moves troops and temporary military zones onto the island. The parallel tracks of diplomacy and military preparation underscore Greenland’s rising strategic importance and raise risks of miscalculation among allies and rivals.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1Danish and U.S. diplomatic teams met in Washington on Jan. 22 and will continue negotiations; Denmark is prioritising a ‘‘calm process’’ to lower tensions.
  • 2A multinational NATO exercise, ‘‘Arctic Endurance,’' has begun on Greenland and will run through the end of 2026 with multiple European allies participating.
  • 3Denmark has established temporary military zones on Greenland and deployed troops conducting live-fire training at Nuuk airport.
  • 4Danish public broadcaster reported troops were ordered that, in a worst-case scenario should the U.S. unexpectedly attack Greenland, Denmark would immediately fight.
  • 5The developments highlight Greenland’s strategic importance and the challenge of balancing deterrence with de-escalation in the Arctic.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

Denmark’s dual-track approach—quiet diplomacy in Washington paired with visible military readiness on Greenland—reflects a broader tension facing small NATO states in an age of great-power competition. By hosting a prolonged multinational exercise and signalling robust defensive intent, Copenhagen aims to deter adversaries and reassure domestic constituencies about sovereignty. Yet such signalling carries costs: greater military footprints and explicit combat orders, even framed hypothetically, raise the risk of accidental escalation and complicate allied relations, particularly with the United States. The immediate strategic imperative for Denmark and NATO is clearer lines of communication with Washington and Moscow, calibrated public messaging to avoid sensationalism, and engagement with Greenlandic authorities to manage local political fallout. Over the next year, expect steady diplomatic shuttle diplomacy, additional NATO reconnaissance activity, and intensified debate in Copenhagen and Nuuk over the balance between security, autonomy and economic interests in Greenland.

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Denmark’s foreign minister, Rasmussen, said on January 23 that Danish and U.S. diplomatic teams met in Washington on the 22nd and will continue negotiations over the sensitive issue of Greenland. He framed the immediate priority as lowering tensions, arguing that publicising timetables for future talks would risk sensational headlines and reactive escalations rather than a ‘‘calm process.’'

At the same time, Copenhagen is moving to harden its posture on the ground. The Danish Defence Command announced that a multinational exercise called ‘‘Arctic Endurance’’ has begun on Greenland and will run through the end of 2026, with NATO allies including France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, Iceland and Belgium participating and others expressing interest in sending reconnaissance teams.

Danish forces have established temporary military zones on Greenland and released footage showing soldiers at Nuuk airport conducting live-fire training. The Danish Broadcasting Corporation reported that the troops arrived with substantial live ammunition and were given orders that, in a worst-case scenario, if the United States unexpectedly attacked Greenland, Denmark would be prepared to fight immediately.

The juxtaposition of diplomatic outreach and an expanded military footprint speaks to the strategic tightrope Denmark now walks. Greenland sits astride key transatlantic lines and hosts vital NATO infrastructure; its location has become an intensifying focus since Washington’s short-lived attempt to buy the territory in 2019 and amid rising great-power competition in the Arctic.

For NATO, Denmark’s moves are a message of deterrence to potential adversaries and of seriousness to allies. For Copenhagen the challenge is twofold: reassure partners in Washington that Denmark remains a cooperative ally while signalling to domestic and regional audiences — including Greenlanders debating autonomy and resource access — that Denmark retains sovereignty and the ability to defend it.

The immediate risks are clear. Military drills with live ammunition and explicit orders to resist even a hypothetical U.S. attack increase the chance of misreading and miscalculation, especially if media cycles amplify incidents or remarks. Rasmussen’s insistence on quiet diplomacy seeks to blunt that danger, but the expanded NATO presence and the open door to more reconnaissance teams mean Greenland will be a stage for allied posture and rival signalling for the foreseeable future.

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