A sudden shift in betting markets has elevated Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for fixed income, to the top of the shortlist to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Prediction-market data on Kalshi now price Rieder’s chances at roughly 60 percent, overtaking former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, who sits near 25 percent. The move reflects a growing comfort among investors that Rieder’s Wall Street credentials and openness to central‑bank reform would be market‑friendly.
Rieder’s emergence has been buoyed by private investor feedback to Trump administration officials and by endorsements from corporate executives and bond traders met at Davos. Insiders say Rieder projects the air of a central banker while not having worked at the Fed, a trait some view as freeing him from the institution’s internal orthodoxies. Reports also suggest that Rieder’s proposals to reshape parts of the Fed’s operations have attracted the attention of President Trump.
The potential nomination comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the selection process, signals a decision could come as early as next week. President Trump has said he has completed candidate interviews and has a preference without naming anyone. Other contenders include White House economic director Kevin Hassett, Fed governor Christopher Waller, and Warsh, who until recently was the prediction‑market favorite.
Markets and policymakers are watching closely because the choice of chair will materially shape U.S. monetary policy and the central bank’s institutional independence. The administration is under political pressure to deliver relief on living costs ahead of the election, and Trump has publicly urged the Fed to lower rates more aggressively. Insiders report a key concern among the president’s advisers: whether a Rieder‑led Fed would quickly cut rates to suit the president’s political aims or assert the independence typical of a Fed chair.
For investors, a Rieder appointment could be interpreted as a pro‑market signal that prioritizes bond market stability and possibly looser policy, at least initially. For the Fed and global markets, it would raise questions about conflicts of interest given Rieder’s BlackRock ties, and about how any proposed reforms would alter the Fed’s decision‑making and communication frameworks. The nomination fight will test the balance between market confidence, central‑bank credibility and political influence over what may be the most consequential economic appointment of President Trump’s second term.