Three of China’s leading private rocket designers used a Beijing forum this month to set out competing road maps for reusable launch vehicles, signalling that 2026 could be a make-or-break year for domestic reusability. Faced with the vast lift and cost demands of satellite‑internet constellations, companies Blue Arrow (蓝箭航天), Galaxy Dynamics/Star River (星河动力) and CAS Space (中科宇航) laid out contrasting technical choices and aggressive timelines aimed at closing China’s launch-capacity gap.
Blue Arrow presented a three‑phase plan for its Zhuque‑3 vehicle that begins with consolidating first‑stage recovery and achieving a reflight this year, then moves to batch production at facilities in Jiuquan, Wuxi and Jiaxing with an eventual annual output target around 20–30 launches. Beyond production scaling, the firm intends to develop a larger Zhuque‑3A variant, test sea‑platform and return‑to‑land recovery modes, and re‑engineer the vehicle around a new 100‑ton‑class Tianque B engine to lift about 18 tonnes to LEO.
Galaxy Dynamics’ chief designer framed a different bet: the Zhishen‑2 is a large, modular liquid rocket using deep‑throttle, 100‑ton‑class LOX‑kerosene engines and extensive 3D‑printed, integrated structures. The company says Zhishen‑2 will be able to lift roughly 20 tonnes to low orbit, with a basic variant massing about 757 tonnes at liftoff, and it is targeting a first flight before the end of 2026 after a successful full‑system hot‑fire test of its CQ‑90 engine.
CAS Space is pursuing a deliberate “dual‑track” strategy that mixes high‑cadence small vehicles with larger, recoverable launchers. Its small solid and hybrid beneficiaries—Lijian‑1 rockets—have completed multiple rideshare launches and have placed more than 80 satellites into orbit, while the Lihong suborbital testbed has already demonstrated a parachute recovery from a 100‑km flight. CAS plans to use Lihong vehicles to mature parachute and first‑stage recovery before integrating those lessons into two‑stage fully recoverable systems, with a Lihong‑2 demonstrator slated for flight tests by the end of 2026.
All three teams emphasised technical priorities that mirror global trends: thermal protection and aerodynamic loads for re‑entry, high‑precision guidance and control for pinpoint returns, streamlined post‑flight maintenance regimes, and manufacturing methods—particularly additive manufacturing and standardised modular design—to compress costs and cycle times. Blue Arrow highlighted high‑strength stainless steel and laser‑welded tanks as part of its materials approach, while Galaxy Dynamics emphasised large‑engine architecture and 3D printing for integration and weight saving.
The commercial imperative is clear. Satellite‑internet constellations require an unprecedented launch cadence and low per‑kilogram costs; reusable first stages and routine rapid turnarounds are the most direct route to those economics. Chinese private firms are pitching production and operational models—ranging from 20–30 launches per year per factory to claimed per‑kilogram prices as low as RMB30,000—that, if realised, would materially lower barriers to mass constellation deployment and intensify international competition.
Technical and operational risks remain substantial. Past tests provide both encouragement and caution: Blue Arrow’s December 2025 Zhuque‑3 inaugural flight achieved orbital insertion of an upper stage but failed to recover the first stage, even as it validated numerous reusability subsystems. Parachute and suborbital recoveries, such as CAS Space’s Lihong‑1 mission, demonstrate incremental progress but do not yet prove routine, rapid reuse at scale.
If 2026 delivers successful first‑stage recoveries and re‑flights from any of these programmes it will shift the economics and industrial dynamics of Chinese space. Success would accelerate domestic constellation projects, attract further private capital, and pressure incumbents—both state and private—to scale up. Conversely, setbacks will likely slow ambitions, impose heavier reliance on expendable architectures, and keep launch costs higher for longer.