Chinese flight-tracking data show a sharp deterioration in air services between the mainland and Japan as carriers scale back operations ahead of February. As of January 26, 2026, 49 China–Japan routes had cancelled all scheduled flights for February, and mainland-to-Japan cancellations in January reached 47.2 percent, up 7.8 percentage points from December 2025.
The spike in cancellations comes as airlines and passengers navigate lingering uncertainty over travel demand and scheduling. Flight data firm Hangban Guanjia (航班管家) reports the rise in cancellations after a period of gradual post-pandemic recovery in international travel, and carriers have extended a free-change-and-refund policy through March 28 to ease the burden on ticket-holders and limit dispute over disrupted itineraries.
The scale of the cuts matters because travel between China and Japan is a bellwether for East Asian tourism and business mobility. February is typically a high-demand period around the Lunar New Year holidays; widespread route suspensions therefore risk eroding consumer confidence, disrupting holiday plans, and reducing short-term revenues for hotels, retailers and transport operators in Japan that rely heavily on Chinese visitors.
Why flights are being cancelled is not fully visible from public data, but plausible drivers include a mismatch between restored seat capacity and weaker-than-expected demand, refreshed operational constraints such as crew scheduling or slot availability, and a cautious approach by carriers hedging against last-minute drops in bookings. The temporary refund policy is a clear operational response: it shifts short-term discomfort to carriers while giving consumers flexibility, but it also signals that airlines expect continued volatility through the spring.
The immediate impact will be commercial: fewer flights mean lower passenger volumes and thinner ancillary revenue for airlines and airports, and a tougher season for Japan’s inbound tourism industry. Strategically, the pattern highlights the fragility of post-pandemic travel normalization in East Asia and underscores the need for airlines to keep capacity flexible and for destination economies to diversify sources of tourists. Markets will be watching whether cancellations are a short-term correction or the start of a longer retrenchment in cross-strait and regional connectivity.