The Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has entered the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, a visible projection of American force as tensions with Iran rise. President Trump described a “large fleet” around Iran while Tehran announced it was prepared to respond to any hostile move, setting a fraught backdrop for possible military action.
The Lincoln group is not yet positioned within the most effective strike envelope for Iran, but U.S. outlets say it could sail into the Gulf of Oman or the northern Arabian Sea within days. U.S. officials have told The New York Times that the strike group could be ordered to begin kinetic operations within a day or two; the carrier can support roughly 90 aircraft, including F-35s and F/A-18s, and is accompanied by destroyers capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Washington has reinforced the region with additional warships and airpower: destroyers patrol the Gulf, littoral combat ships are based in Bahrain, F-15E strike fighters have been deployed, and airlift activity suggests movement of logistics and possibly air-defence systems. Analysts note that the U.S. still possesses multiple options for strikes — from Tomahawks fired by surface ships and submarines to air-launched munitions delivered by manned and unmanned aircraft.
Iran has responded by declaring a maximum state of readiness and warning it would target U.S. bases in the region if attacked. Tehran’s inventory of ballistic missiles — which it says now includes long-range and hypersonic-capable variants — and large numbers of armed drones pose meaningful threats to fixed bases and naval vessels alike. The memory of the June 2025 confrontation, when Iran launched ballistic missiles at Al Udeid air base after an Israeli strike, underlines Tehran’s willingness to retaliate swiftly.
Diplomacy has not been abandoned. Tehran’s foreign minister has been dialing international counterparts to stress dialogue and regional actors from Saudi Arabia to Oman and Qatar have quietly sought to mediate. Domestically, Iranian leaders have moved to shore up unity, promising economic relief and publicly warning against foreign-instigated disorder, an effort to reduce leverage that outside pressure might otherwise confer.
U.S. policymakers face a calculus of risks. Any American strike risks retaliation that could target handfuls of bases across the Gulf, draw in Houthi attacks on shipping or escalate into wider disruptions of oil exports — a strategic cost that would quickly ripple through global markets. Several analysts expect any U.S. action to be calibrated and limited rather than an all-out war, a posture that aims to coerce Iran back to negotiations while avoiding regional conflagration.
The shorter-term trajectory looks perilous but manageable: a period of heightened alert, intense diplomacy and cautious posturing by both sides. The greater danger is miscalculation — a single unintended strike or an overmatched retaliation could break the fragile chain of deterrence and usher in a broader regional crisis with consequences for energy supplies and international security.