China’s official tallies for 2025 provincial GDP have laid bare a widening split in the country’s regional performance as the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes. While 20 of the 31 provincial-level units matched or exceeded the national growth rate of roughly 5%, the headline picture is one of concentration: a handful of large provinces continue to scale up rapidly, while traditional heavyweights and several interior economies face fresh constraints.
Tibet led headline growth with an official 7.0% rise in GDP, the fastest among all provinces, a performance driven as much by a low base as by a sharp surge in investment. Fixed-asset investment in Tibet rose 17.2% year-on-year in 2025, with projects above 1 billion yuan completing at a 41.8% faster pace and newly started projects expanding investment by 135.1%. Big-ticket infrastructure such as the Sichuan–Tibet railway and large hydropower schemes are keeping investment momentum elevated.
Beyond Tibet, nine provinces posted growth at or above 5.5%, including Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Hebei, Xinjiang and Gansu. Gansu, at 5.8%, stood out for sustained industrial strength: its large-enterprise industrial output rose 9.5% and key commodities such as gold, lead and refined copper posted double-digit gains. Continuous two‑digit industrial investment for 54 months has contributed to a sizable industrial contribution to provincial growth.
Not all of the country’s heavyweights fared as well. Guangdong—China’s largest economy for 37 years—expanded 3.9%, one of only two provinces below 4% growth, though this marked a 0.4 percentage-point improvement on 2024. Liaoning registered the slowest expansion at 3.7%, reflecting anemic gains in its second (industrial) sector, which grew just 0.7% in 2025. Jilin was the only northeastern province to match the national pace, underscoring uneven performance in a region still wrestling with industrial transition.
A second group of provinces recorded sub‑national growth below about 4.5%: Yunnan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Hainan and Qinghai. Yunnan’s weakness was concentrated in consumption and investment—retail growth of 2.4% and a 7.0% fall in fixed‑asset investment—while Shanxi’s output was buffeted by volatile energy prices. Heilongjiang reported improvements in some indicators but saw fixed‑asset investment slump 10.3%. Hainan, despite a sharp fall in investment, posted strong gains in industrial output, retail sales and cross‑border services trade.
The year also brought notable milestones and rank shifts. Shandong’s GDP topped 10 trillion yuan, making it the first northern province to join the 10‑trillion club; Zhejiang reached 9.45 trillion yuan and is pressing upwards. Beijing’s economy crossed the 5 trillion yuan mark, making it the second Chinese city to do so after Shanghai. In the rankings, Chongqing leapfrogged Liaoning into 16th place—a move linked to Chongqing reclaiming the top spot in national automobile production—while the GDP gap between Guangdong and Jiangsu has narrowed to about 340 billion yuan, setting up a potentially closer contest among the elites.
The 2025 ledger underscores three structural dynamics that matter for China’s broader economic trajectory. First, the top tier of provinces is consolidating scale and will likely exert growing influence on national aggregates. Second, many inland and resource‑dependent provinces remain reliant on investment and commodity cycles, exposing them to greater volatility as investment growth slows elsewhere. Third, the northeast and traditional energy bases still require deeper industrial upgrading and stronger consumption recoveries to regain momentum.
Looking ahead, how provinces navigate the transition from investment‑led to consumption‑and-innovation-driven growth will shape China's resilience in the next five‑year period. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: sustain demand through targeted projects and consumption support, while accelerating productivity upgrades and services expansion in lagging regions. For businesses and investors, the map of winners and strugglers in 2025 offers a clearer signal of where capacity, demand and policy support are converging and where the search for new, sustainable growth engines remains urgent.