Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, set out a bullish vision for the Chinese auto industry: by combining robust domestic demand with an accelerating export push, China’s annual car shipments could expand to 50 million units — roughly 30 million for the domestic market and 20 million overseas. He frames the near-term momentum around the electric-vehicle surge, forecasting retail NEV sales of 12.81 million units in 2025 and total NEV volumes, including exports, of about 15.32 million.
The structure of that growth is already visible. Pure battery-electric vehicles account for an expanding share — roughly 62% of NEV sales in Cui’s assessment — and a new generation of independent and technology-led manufacturers such as NIO, XPeng, Li Auto and entrants tied to Huawei and Xiaomi are diversifying offerings and winning consumers. Exports of Chinese new-energy passenger cars have nearly doubled year-on-year, turning overseas shipments into a fresh pillar of growth rather than a residual channel.
Yet the climb is uneven. Cui flags a stark divide between domestic independent brands, where NEV penetration approaches 80%, and joint-venture foreign brands, where penetration remains in the low single digits (around 8%). That gap underscores why legacy manufacturers are struggling to keep pace: product roadmaps, industrial structures and cultural incentives are not yet aligned with the rapid electrification evident in domestic champions.
Technological progress is central to the story. Rapid iteration in battery chemistry and pack design has raised energy density, reduced costs and improved safety, while the nationwide build-out of charging infrastructure has eased consumer range anxiety. Cui expects radical innovations such as solid-state batteries to reach scale in vehicle production only after 2028, but incremental improvements will continue to lift performance and usability in the interim.
Strategically, Cui casts the future of automotive “intelligence” as a contest dominated by China and the United States. He argues the US retains advantages in corporate dynamism, venture capital and systems integration, while China benefits from stable electricity supply, a strong grid and strengths in AI-driven software — an environment well suited to scaling connected, software-defined vehicles.
The implications are global. Cui predicts China will surpass Japan to become the world’s leading car producer and increase its global manufacturing share from about 34% today toward 40–50%. That would reshape supply chains, pricing dynamics and geopolitical leverage across raw materials, semiconductors and automotive software ecosystems. Foreign incumbents with large manufacturing footprints in China face intensified competition both at home and in export markets.
The path is not without risk. Margin pressure from aggressive pricing, uneven profitability across brands, and the need to translate manufacturing scale into trusted global brands are material challenges. Success in hitting a 50 million-unit scale will hinge on sustained technological progress, deeper overseas localization, and the ability of traditional players to overhaul product and production strategies quickly enough to match new-energy incumbents.
Cui’s conclusion is cautiously optimistic: policy support for decarbonisation, accelerating exports and brisk technological advancement provide a credible route to dramatic scale-up. But the industry’s ultimate trajectory will be determined as much by the speed of legacy transformation and international market adoption as by China’s domestic momentum.