The international gold price has shattered psychological barriers, topping $5,000 an ounce and triggering a wave of buying in mining stocks. Chinese and Hong Kong-listed gold producers have seen dramatic moves: several mainland names posted consecutive daily limit-ups, with Sichuan Gold rising four sessions in a row and soaring nearly 140% in under a month, while China National Gold and Hunan Gold also posted multi-day rallies. Hong Kong-listed miners likewise gained ground, with Wanguo Gold Group (3939.HK) and Chifeng Gold (6693.HK) jumping more than 10%, and Shandong Gold (1787.HK) and Zijin Gold International (2259.HK) up around 8%.
The price action reflects an extraordinary run in bullion that began in 2023 and accelerated through 2025. After rising 13.5% in 2023 and 27.4% in 2024, international gold climbed 64.0% in 2025 — the largest annual advance since the 1979 oil shock — and has continued its ascent in 2026, gaining more than 20% in less than a month. Silver has outpaced many assets too, up over 60% year-to-date, underscoring a broad precious-metals upswing.
Miners’ earnings are following metal prices higher. A string of 2025 profit previews from Chinese gold producers show steep year-on-year gains driven mainly by higher sales realizations and, in some cases, rising output and operational improvements. Zhongjin Gold forecast net profit of Rmb4.8–5.4bn for 2025, up roughly 42–59% year-on-year, citing higher sales prices, steady volumes and cost controls. Hunan Gold projected net profit growth of 50–90% on stronger prices for gold, antimony and tungsten. Zhaojin Gold swung back to profit after a prior loss, while Chifeng and Zijin reported sizable profit upgrades on higher realized prices and, in Zijin’s case, higher metal output.
Zijin Mining’s preview stands out for scale: the group expects 2025 net profit of about Rmb51–52bn, roughly 59–62% above 2024, helped by an increase in mined gold to about 90 tonnes and higher copper and silver receipts as well. Several producers attribute improved margins to a mix of price effects and efficiency gains — measures such as lean management and plant upgrades that cut unit costs and amplified the leverage of mining operations to metal prices.
International banks and brokers have been revising forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs has nudged its end-2026 gold forecast to $5,400/oz, Morgan Stanley cites a bull-case path to $5,700, UBS flags upside scenarios around $5,400 and Bank of America has gone furthest, targeting $6,000/oz in its most aggressive projection. Analysts point to continued central-bank buying, growing private investor demand, and potential Fed easing as structural drivers that could sustain further inflows into physical bullion and ETFs.
Not all observers are uniformly bullish. The World Gold Council cautions that the market now faces a mix of forces: sustained central-bank accumulation and geopolitical risk on the upside, but potential headwinds from economic recovery, shifting rates cycles and any dollar rebound. Domestic investors and some private managers also warn of the risk of sharp pullbacks after rapid rallies, particularly in heavily leveraged or thinly traded miner stocks that have seen momentum-driven bids.
The macro backdrop matters beyond headline forecasts. Central-bank purchases — UBS expects global reserve buying to rise materially in 2026 — together with a weaker dollar and renewed ETF flows form a potent demand story. On the supply side, mines require long lead times and capital to expand output, and higher prices incentivize investment but do not instantly add supply. That dynamic underpins the miners’ profit sensitivity but also suggests the market could remain volatile as participants recalibrate expectations about growth, policy and geopolitics.
For global investors the short-term picture is a mix of opportunity and risk. Miners’ operating leverage makes them an efficient conduit for gains when prices climb, but it also magnifies downside in a drawdown. Institutional allocations to the sector remain relatively modest, leaving room for additional flows that could prolong the rally — or accelerate reversals if sentiment shifts. Watching central-bank behavior, ETF flows, and the trajectory of US interest rates will be decisive to judge whether the current leg becomes a structural repricing or a speculative spike.