With Guangdong’s year-end bulletin on 30 January, the ten Chinese provinces long regarded as the country’s economic heavyweights have all published their annual results. Seven of them outpaced the national GDP growth rate of 5.0%, with inland Henan narrowly topping the group at 5.6%, while Guangdong’s growth lagged at 3.9%.
Taken together the ten provinces account for nearly 20% of China’s land area but generated 60.1% of national GDP in 2025, underscoring their disproportionate economic weight. Guangdong (about 14.6 trillion yuan), Jiangsu (about 14.2 trillion) and Shandong (about 10.3 trillion) form the top tier in sheer output, while Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei and Fujian sit in the middle ranges and Shanghai and Hunan occupy a lower tier by total GDP.
Beyond headline growth rates, the reports show a structural story: faster growth is increasingly coming from services, high-tech manufacturing and green energy rather than a simple rebound of old industrial drivers. Shanghai’s tertiary sector now approaches 80% of GDP, with information services, software and financial activity recording double-digit gains; software and information technology services revenue rose more than 24% in the first 11 months.
Henan’s 5.6% expansion was driven by a surprisingly strong manufacturing sector, whose value added rose 7.6%, contributing roughly two percentage points to provincial GDP. The province has actively courted new energy vehicle makers, AI-related firms and chip and advanced industrial entrants — with companies such as BYD and domestic AI suppliers establishing production — helping high‑tech manufacturing grow by 16.6% and raising the share of strategic emerging industries above one quarter of large-scale industry.
Sichuan provides a parallel example of structural change through the energy transition. The province accelerated construction of large hydropower and other clean-energy capacity, its installed hydro generation capacity surpassed 100 million kilowatts and accounted for over 20% of the national total. Industrial electricity from clean sources and a push into battery and vanadium‑titanium supply chains helped lift green industries and reduce energy intensity in factory output.
Domestic demand recovery is another recurring theme. Retail sales performed best in Henan, Shandong and Sichuan, while Jiangsu and Shandong staged broad consumption campaigns to sustain spending. Investment patterns were uneven but improving: Shanghai’s fixed‑asset investment rose 4.6%, led by electricity, transport and semiconductor projects, and Henan and Hubei also posted positive investment growth, reflecting a nascent reacceleration in capital formation.
Provincial government targets for 2026 reflect cautious optimism and an emphasis on stabilising growth: Guangdong has set a 4.5–5% goal, several provinces aim around 5%, Zhejiang targets 5–5.5% and Hubei about 5.5%. The targets signal a pragmatic approach — seeking solid, service‑led expansion while managing fiscal and financial constraints.
The net picture is one of narrowing dispersion among the large provinces and a rebalancing of growth toward interior regions and knowledge‑intensive sectors. Yet the durability of these shifts will depend on sustaining private investment, managing local government debt and navigating weaker external demand and lingering property-sector vulnerabilities. For global observers, the takeaway is that China’s regional economies are quietly evolving: growth is more heterogeneous and driven by different mixes of consumption, tech and green investment than in previous cycles.