After 15 Years, the Kennedy’s Sea Trials Highlight a Growing U.S.–China Carrier Gap

The John F. Kennedy began sea trials in January 2026 after a 15‑year build that highlights persistent technical and industrial challenges in the U.S. Ford‑class programme, notably the unreliable EMALS catapult. China’s carrier programme, which reportedly started construction of a Type 004 nuclear carrier in 2026, is advancing more rapidly, raising questions about future balance of naval power in the Indo‑Pacific.

USS Midway Museum aircraft carrier docked in harbor with planes onboard and flag flying.

Key Takeaways

  • 1USS John F. Kennedy (CVN‑79) began first sea trials on 28 January 2026 after a 15‑year construction period and delivery now expected around 2027.
  • 2Persistent reliability problems with the Ford‑class electromagnetic launch system (EMALS) continue to impede sortie generation and aircraft integration.
  • 3China’s carrier programme has accelerated: Shandong and Fujian are operational milestones and construction on a Type 004 nuclear carrier reportedly began in 2026.
  • 4U.S. shipbuilding faces rising costs, supply‑chain strains and workforce challenges, while China touts modular production and digital tools to cut costs and speed delivery.
  • 5Operational readiness depends on more than hull completion—air‑wing integration, training, logistics and system reliability will determine actual combat capability.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

The Kennedy’s sea trials expose a strategic paradox: technological ambition can undermine near‑term operational effectiveness when risk is concentrated in novel subsystems. EMALS promised transformational improvements but has produced long tail‑risk in reliability and integration, forcing prolonged testing cycles and cost growth. Beijing’s accelerating carrier output looks impressive, yet capability depends on the slower business of building trained air wings, effective carrier escort forces and resilient logistics networks. For U.S. policymakers the imperative is twofold: fix systemic weaknesses in shipyard capacity and supply chains, and rebalance force design toward more resilient, distributed options—unmanned systems, more numerous smaller carriers or amphibious aviation platforms—so that a single programme’s delays do not create strategic gaps. For allies and partners in the Indo‑Pacific, the narrowing margin between Chinese scale and American technological edge means operational planning, basing and joint training will become more consequential to deterrence than platform counts alone.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

The U.S. Navy’s newest Ford‑class carrier, John F. Kennedy (CVN‑79), began its long‑anticipated first sea trials on 28 January 2026, capping a 15‑year build that started in 2011. What should have been a steady step toward renewed naval capability instead underscores the program’s fits and starts: construction setbacks, repeated delivery slips and a timetable that now stretches to a likely 2027 handover.

The Ford line was meant to be a leap forward: more automation, redesigned flight‑deck operations and, crucially, an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) that promised higher sortie generation and better compatibility with modern jets. In practice, EMALS has proved stubbornly unreliable, complicating integration with carrier aircraft and suppressing sortie rates. Those technical shortfalls have dogged the class since the lead ship, USS Ford, and they risk leaving the Kennedy underperforming for years while technicians iterate fixes and pilots adapt.

By contrast, China’s carrier program has been expanding rapidly. From the refit of Liaoning to the commissioning of Shandong and the introduction of Fujian (a large, modern, CATOBAR‑capable hull), Beijing has rapidly moved from experimentation to operational consolidation. Chinese sources now report that construction of a Type 004 nuclear‑powered carrier began in 2026, a milestone that would extend the PLAN’s reach and endurance if the ship’s propulsion, air wing and logistics are successfully integrated.

Behind these divergent trajectories lie deeper industrial and programmatic differences. The U.S. programme has struggled with rising costs, supply‑chain fragility, a shrinking skilled shipbuilding workforce and the complexity of integrating multiple unproven systems into a single hull. Chinese shipyards, by contrast, benefit from standardised modular production, substantial state coordination and heavy investment in digital design tools—factors Beijing credits for rapid throughput and lower per‑ton construction costs, a claim that should be treated cautiously but nevertheless signals an expanding capacity.

The operational implications are more than industrial. Aircraft carriers are floating systems of systems: hull, powerplant, catapults, arresting gear, radar, air wing and logistics must all function together. A delivered carrier still needs months if not years of iterative trials, training and technical upgrades before it can perform sustained combat operations. For the U.S., the Kennedy’s sea trials are a necessary but insufficient step; for China, a nuclear carrier would change deployment options but would also demand matching advances in carrier aviation, anti‑submarine warfare and forward logistics.

The Kennedy’s debut should therefore be read as both progress and a cautionary tale. It marks the continuation of an expensive, technically ambitious American approach that has produced important innovations but also schedule and reliability headaches. Meanwhile, China’s steady production and reported move to nuclear propulsion heighten the strategic stakes in the Indo‑Pacific: the contest now involves not only ship numbers but the ability to integrate systems, train air wings and sustain distant operations under contested conditions.

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