China’s once-sluggish second-hand housing market in its biggest cities has shown an unexpected burst of activity this January, defying the usual winter lull. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou all reported month-on-month gains in resales, with Beijing net signings topping 15,000 units, Shanghai exceeding 22,800, Shenzhen hitting a near‑10‑month high of 6,802 and Guangzhou recording 8,881 second‑hand residential transactions.
The bounce is being driven by a mixture of policy nudges, shifting seller psychology and timing effects from the Lunar New Year. New measures in Beijing — announced in late December — loosened non‑local purchase thresholds, supported additional purchases for multi‑child families and eased some loan terms, while broader local support and earlier interest‑rate stability have helped release latent demand, particularly among buyers hunting for school‑district properties.
A complementary factor is the fall in advertised supply. Listings in the first‑tier cities have trended down: head brokerage listings in Beijing have dropped to about 125,600 units, while Shanghai’s advertised stock slid from roughly 120,000 in April 2025 to 89,000 in January 2026. Lower inventory, together with narrower bargaining ranges and shorter time‑to‑sale, has tightened the market micro‑mechanics and supported transaction volumes.
The rebound has a clear internal structure. Much of the demand is concentrated in high‑quality, core‑area stock and school‑district flats, where price corrections of the past four years have made units more attractive to buyers. Brokers in Beijing and Shanghai reported sharp upticks in turnover for reasonably priced school‑district apartments, and some sellers have even withdrawn listings to convert properties into rentals, citing renovation‑led yields of roughly 3.3–3.5% on older, well‑located units.
Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing similar, if more measured, signs of recovery. Guangzhou’s January resales and floor area both edged up, with growth concentrated in peripheral districts. Shenzhen posted resilient monthly gains and a large year‑on‑year rise — a signal that buyer confidence in that city has recovered substantially after an extended slowdown; average resale prices there remain elevated, with a January second‑hand average near RMB 50,800 per square metre.
For all the upbeat headlines, the recovery is partial and uneven. Nationwide data show that January resale prices in Beijing and Shanghai still slipped month‑on‑month, albeit by smaller amounts, and there is pronounced divergence between core and non‑core submarkets. Older, outlying neighbourhoods and many mass‑market units remain under downward pressure, and the overall stock of listed units is still sizeable, meaning de‑stocking will take time.
The immediate policy implication is pragmatic: modest, targeted support and improved market signalling have rekindled activity in the most liquid parts of China’s housing market without precipitating a broad upswing in prices. But sustaining a broader recovery will require deeper fixes — lower transaction costs, clearer regulatory order and better employment and income prospects for would‑be buyers. Observers will be watching post‑New Year listing flows, the pace of price divergence across districts, and whether this ‘‘small spring’’ broadens beyond school‑district and core‑area deals into the wider second‑hand universe.