Stakes of Scope: Iran Insists Muscat Talks Stay Narrow as U.S. Seeks Missile Guarantees

Iran and the United States will meet in Muscat to discuss Tehran’s nuclear programme, but a dispute over whether ballistic missiles should be on the agenda threatens to overshadow the talks. Tehran insists on a nuclear‑only mandate while Washington seeks broader guarantees, leaving the outcome uncertain and the regional security climate fragile.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1Iran scheduled nuclear talks with the U.S. in Muscat on 6 February and insists the agenda be limited to nuclear issues.
  • 2U.S. officials have pushed to include Iran’s ballistic‑missile programme in discussions, a demand Tehran rejects as off limits.
  • 3Iran signals willingness to show flexibility on uranium enrichment for peaceful uses, but rejects preconditions that touch its missile capabilities.
  • 4Military developments — including inspections of underground missile bases and a declared shift to a more offensive doctrine — raise the stakes ahead of the talks.
  • 5The disagreement over scope will likely determine whether negotiators pursue a narrow, verifiable nuclear deal or a broader, politically fraught package that includes missiles and regional behaviour.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

The question of scope is the strategic hinge for any near‑term progress between the United States and Iran. A narrowly circumscribed nuclear deal could deliver verifiable limits on enrichment and temporary sanctions relief, reducing immediate proliferation risks. But that outcome would leave intact the missile capabilities and regional posture that Tehran and its adversaries view as existential issues, potentially prompting Israel and Gulf states to respond with parallel security measures. Conversely, insisting on a single comprehensive package risks deadlock: Iran views missile capabilities as central to deterrence and national pride, and concessions on them would be politically costly for Tehran’s leaders and the Revolutionary Guard. Practically, the most viable path may be sequential diplomacy — a nuclear framework agreement that includes explicit pathways for later, confidence‑building talks on missiles and regional security — backed by third‑party guarantees and phased incentives. Observers should watch for sequencing language in any Muscat communique, the nature of verification provisions, and immediate military signalling, all of which will reveal whether both sides prefer manageably technical compromise or an escalatory bargaining confrontation.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

Diplomats from Washington and Tehran are due to meet in Muscat on 6 February for talks framed as negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, but the two sides are already clashing over the agenda. Tehran says the discussion should be confined to nuclear issues, while U.S. officials have signalled they expect the conversation to address Iran’s ballistic‑missile programme as well — a demand Tehran rejects as off limits.

Iran’s foreign minister announced the Muscat meeting on social media and Iranian officials have stressed that missile issues are “not on the table.” Tehran says it is willing to show flexibility on uranium enrichment provided that enrichment is for peaceful uses and not for weapons, and warns that insisting on non‑nuclear topics could jeopardise the talks.

The dispute over scope is not abstract: recent military developments have hardened Iran’s negotiating posture. Iran’s chief of general staff inspected an underground missile base and declared a shift from a defensive to an offensive military doctrine after the June 2025 confrontation with Israel, during which the United States carried out strikes on Iranian facilities and Iran retaliated with attacks on U.S. forces in the region.

How the talks are framed will determine what a successful outcome could look like. A narrowly focused, technical deal limited to enrichment levels, inspection access and stockpile caps would be easier to define and verify; folding in ballistic missiles and regional behaviour turns the negotiation into a much broader political bargaining process involving deterrence, conventional capabilities and the security concerns of Israel and Gulf states.

The immediate diplomatic test is therefore whether the two sides accept parallel tracks — a nuclear deal first with separate discussions on missiles and regional security later — or insist on a single package. If Iran’s missile programme remains untouchable, the United States and its regional partners may find any nuclear accord insufficient to address their security worries, increasing the risk of a breakdown and further military escalation.

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