In the run-up to talks in Oman, tensions between Washington and Tehran have been punctuated by a flurry of hostile signals. The United States has warned of possible military action and urged its citizens to leave Iran, while Iran staged displays of advanced ballistic missiles and warned that US bases across the Middle East would be highly vulnerable to attack. Israel, too, has stepped up domestic air-defence drills, creating a scene in which all three capitals are visibly preparing for the possibility that diplomacy could fail.
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, says the manoeuvres are not mere posturing but calculated steps to strengthen negotiating positions. "If you want peace, prepare for war," he observes — a pragmatic calculus that treats military capability as the most direct form of bargaining chip in high‑stakes diplomacy. By signalling an unwillingness to be coerced and the ability to retaliate, each side hopes to enter the table with stronger leverage and better odds of securing favourable outcomes.
There is also a risk‑management rationale behind the saber‑rattling. Qin notes that with US and Iranian ships and aircraft operating ever closer in Middle Eastern airspace and waters, the danger of accidental clashes has risen; countries prepare militarily to deter miscalculation and to limit the fallout if an incident does occur. He points to last June’s 12‑day Iran‑Israel episode as an example of how local actors can act independently of broader diplomatic processes, potentially disrupting negotiations and escalating conflict.
Regional states have their own motives for calming the situation, and will likely intensify behind‑the‑scenes diplomacy before and after the Oman meetings. Gulf monarchies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar would stand to suffer most from a wider war, while the United States and Israel are comparatively insulated by distance and defensive systems. That asymmetry gives smaller regional players both the incentive and the leverage to press for de‑escalation and to shepherd any agreement into implementation.