A wave of social-media posts this week circulated footage purportedly showing Iran test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The clips, shared widely across platforms, prompted immediate alarm among regional watchers and defence commentators, but missile experts who examined the material say the imagery is almost certainly fabricated.
Analysts flagged multiple technical inconsistencies in the video: the missile’s flight profile and exhaust plume do not match known designs, lighting and shadows are mismatched across frames, and there is no corroborating telemetry, satellite imagery or official Iranian announcement. Independent open-source investigators noted that Iran’s publicly demonstrated missile inventory has focused on short- to medium-range systems and space-launch vehicles, not operational ICBMs capable of striking continents.
Beyond the technical assessment, the episode underscores a broader vulnerability in today’s information environment. Fabricated or miscaptioned footage of weapon tests travels faster than official rebuttals, and can distort perceptions of a country’s military capabilities within hours. In a region where threat perceptions drive expensive procurement and high-stakes diplomacy, a viral hoax can have outsized strategic effects.
The motives behind circulating such material are difficult to pin down. False claims may be intended to intimidate, to boost the perceived deterrence of a state, or to manipulate domestic and international audiences for political effect. They can also feed broader disinformation campaigns that seek to polarize debates about sanctions, arms control and regional alliances.
For policymakers and journalists, the incident is a reminder that verification must come before amplification. Governments and media organisations that reacted immediately to the footage without independent confirmation risked lending credibility to misinformation and complicating diplomatic responses to Iran and its neighbours.
Longer term, the episode highlights the growing importance of open-source verification tools and expert communities that can quickly analyze imagery, telemetry traces and flight physics to separate authentic tests from fabrications. Strengthening these capabilities, and building institutional habits of cautious verification, will be essential to prevent misinformation from shaping security policy in volatile theatres.