Ned Davis Research, a well-known independent macro and market-strategy shop, has told clients that Bitcoin’s recent sell-off may be only the opening act of a deeper downturn. Despite a roughly 45% decline from an October peak of about $126,199 to near $69,000, the firm’s analysts say historical drawdowns imply much more downside if the current correction becomes a full‑blown crypto winter.
Using past Bitcoin bear markets as a guide, NDR’s Pat Tschosik and Philippe Mouls estimate peak‑to‑trough losses of 70–75% in a severe episode, which would place Bitcoin near $31,000. Their back‑test going back to 2011 shows an average collapse of 84% in prior “winters,” with mean duration around 225 days; by contrast, the present decline has lasted roughly 129 days since the October top.
The gloomy scenario is not unique to NDR. Analysts at Standard Chartered and independent strategists have warned of prolonged pain: Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered sees the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $50,000 or below if selling persists, Zacks Investment Research sketches a path toward $40,000, and Stifel models a trough around $38,000. Together these voices have intensified market nervousness as recent weeks have seen accelerating price weakness.
Yet NDR and others hedge their pessimism with an important caveat: Bitcoin’s market structure has changed. Greater institutional participation, from spot ETFs to corporate treasuries and regulated custodians, could blunt the amplitude of future drawdowns and create a more durable price floor than in earlier cycles. NDR notes that the severity of past collapses has been trending down, and they expect that decline in volatility to continue.
Why this matters beyond crypto traders is twofold. First, a deeper Bitcoin slump would inflict mark‑to‑market losses on holders — including some corporate and hedge‑fund portfolios exposed to digital assets — and could trigger forced selling in leveraged accounts and lending facilities. Second, a pronounced drawdown tends to bring renewed regulatory scrutiny and can accelerate deleveraging across crypto intermediaries, with potential knock‑on effects for short‑term liquidity in related markets.
Investors and policymakers watching the market should monitor several indicators: futures funding rates and open interest (which reveal leverage), ETF flows and custody inflows (which reflect institutional demand), miner hashprice and reserve sales (which reveal supply pressure), and macro variables such as dollar strength and policy rates. The path forward is not pre‑ordained: a steady stream of institutional buying could stabilise prices, while persistent macro stress or a wave of liquidations could produce the deep drawdowns the models describe.