China’s AI New-Year Sprint Exposes a New Scarcity: Token Inflation and Rising Compute Prices

China’s major tech firms used the 2026 Lunar New Year to launch a wave of multimodal AI models, precipitating a rapid rise in token-based inference demand. The surge is pushing cloud prices up, giving model vendors pricing leverage while exposing supply, governance and geopolitical risks.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1A concentrated burst of multimodal model launches (video, image, text) by ByteDance, Alibaba, Zhipu, MiniMax et al. coincided with China’s 2026 Spring Festival.
  • 2Multimodal inference is driving sharp increases in token consumption; a single 10‑second 1080p video from Seedance 2.0 uses about 350,000 tokens.
  • 3Daily token calls across major Chinese platforms have climbed from billions in early 2024 to roughly 180 trillion per day for mainstream models in Feb 2026.
  • 4Cloud providers and model vendors are raising prices and restructuring offerings around tokens as the primary metering unit, creating new avenues for monetisation.
  • 5Winners likely include cloud infrastructure and enterprise-focused model vendors; risks include GPU supply constraints, open-source competition, and regulatory pressure over synthetic media.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

Treating token consumption as a new industrial metric reshapes both economics and strategy. Token "inflation" is not merely accounting jargon — it reflects a structural shift where incremental user features (longer contexts, richer visual outputs) translate directly into higher recurring compute costs. That gives firms controlling infrastructure or tightly integrated stacks (cloud + proprietary models) the ability to capture value, but it also concentrates systemic risk: shortages or export controls on accelerators could bottleneck the entire stack, and rapid commoditisation of models could erode margins. Policymakers and corporate buyers should therefore prioritise resilient procurement, investment in model and inference efficiency, and stronger governance frameworks for synthetic content. For investors, the most compelling opportunities are not in headline consumer apps but in the less glamorous layers — datacenter hardware, specialised cloud capacity, runtime governance and enterprise-facing models that can demonstrate measurable ROI and stable subscription revenue.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

China’s technology giants turned the 2026 Lunar New Year into more than a marketing spectacle. Alongside blockbuster cash promotions from Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu, the holiday period has seen a torrent of new multimodal AI models — video, image and text systems — from ByteDance, Alibaba, Zhipu (智谱), MiniMax and smaller rivals. What looks like a product race is also a large-scale stress test of the compute and commercial plumbing beneath the Chinese AI ecosystem.

The technical backdrop is stark. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 video model, one of the headline releases, consumes roughly 350,000 tokens to generate a single 10‑second 1080p clip. As firms push from short chatbots into image and video generation, the computational burden per user is rising fast. Industry data cited by domestic brokers show daily token calls at major platforms jumping from billions in early 2024 to multiple tens of trillions by the end of 2025, with combined mainstream-model consumption in February 2026 running at approximately 180 trillion tokens per day.

The immediate commercial consequence is pressure on cloud and GPU capacity, and a corresponding rethink of pricing. Cloud providers worldwide — from AWS and Google Cloud to Chinese providers — have already announced capacity price increases. Chinese model vendors are following suit: Zhipu reworked its GLM Coding Plan with price rises starting around 30%, citing sustained demand and the need for greater investment in stability and optimisation, and its new offering sold out almost immediately.

Analysts and investment banks have begun to treat tokens — the unit of model inference — as a new "metering" currency for AI services. Where digital services were once measured in daily active users or minutes, sellers now have reason to charge for inference tokens because multimodal and long-context models make token consumption a structural, rather than incidental, cost. That shift gives cloud operators and model providers renewed pricing power and creates business models based on subscriptions, tiered access and usage-based billing.

For investors and product teams the implications are tangible. Brokers counsel exposure to cloud infrastructure (GPUs, storage, I/O), to model vendors that can monetise high‑ROI enterprise scenarios (coding, agents, business workflows) and to tools that manage safety and runtime governance. Token inflation benefits suppliers of compute and specialised software, but it also creates friction for consumer-facing services if costs are passed through or if capacity shortages trigger throttling.

The rapid price resets and capacity tightness also expose strategic vulnerabilities. Heavy reliance on high-end accelerators ties the industry to global supply chains and export controls; open-source models and efficiency breakthroughs could quickly compress margins; and proliferating multimodal outputs — especially realistic video — make content moderation and regulation urgent. In short, the commercial upside for vendors is real, but so are the operational, regulatory and geopolitical risks.

China’s AI "Spring Festival" therefore matters beyond a parade of product debuts. It is a stress-test of an industrial transition: from experimental chatbots to ubiquitous, compute‑hungry multimodal services. The winners will be firms that can secure and price scarce compute, translate token consumption into durable enterprise value, and contain the legal and reputational fallout of more convincing synthetic media.

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