Tehran Strikes Back as US–Israel Campaign Enters Sixth Day, Raising Risk of a Protracted, Region‑wide War

Heavy Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit targets in Israel after several days of US- and Israeli-led attacks on Iran, with both sides reporting strikes on critical infrastructure and mounting casualties. The confrontation is widening across sea, air and proxy fronts, while the United States prepares for a prolonged campaign amid worries about munitions depletion and strained international efforts to contain escalation.

Close-up of a hand holding a small Israeli flag with American flag blurred in the background.

Key Takeaways

  • 1Iran says it used Khorramshahr‑4 super‑heavy missiles escorted by drones to strike Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport and military bases; Israel reports multiple strikes on Tehran infrastructure.
  • 2The IRGC claims a wartime right to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz; CENTCOM reports having struck or sunk over 20 Iranian vessels and both sides report maritime incidents.
  • 3The US is augmenting personnel and materiel to sustain operations for potentially 100 days or more, but has ruled out ground troops for now; US precision‑guided munitions stocks appear to be depleting.
  • 4Regional actors and NATO‑aligned states are offering defensive support to Gulf partners while avoiding direct participation; the crisis risks broadening via proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and the Gulf.
  • 5Iran has not named a successor to its supreme leader amid the conflict, complicating the internal political picture and raising questions about decision‑making under stress.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

The conflict has entered a phase in which kinetic strikes are multiplying but strategic objectives are opaque. Washington and Tel Aviv appear prepared to sustain pressure on Tehran, yet they face diminishing technical and political returns: stockpiles of precision munitions are finite, regional partners want defensive rather than offensive entanglement, and domestic politics in the US constrain unfettered action. Iran has demonstrated an ability to strike high‑value targets and to threaten maritime chokepoints, increasing the economic stakes for oil markets and global trade. Absent clear redlines and diplomatic backchannels, the most likely near-term outcome is a grinding, attritional campaign that alternates between calibrated strikes and calibrated restraint — a pattern that raises the risk of miscalculation, wider regionalization via proxies, and a protracted period of insecurity in the Gulf.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

A US- and Israeli-led military campaign against Iran entered its sixth day on March 5, as Tehran responded with a wave of heavy missile and drone strikes that its forces say pierced Israeli defenses. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the use of Khorramshahr‑4 missiles, each carrying roughly a one-ton warhead, and said their salvoes — escorted by attack drones — struck targets in central Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport and nearby airbases.

Israel said its air force had carried out large-scale attacks on Tehran’s infrastructure and completed what it described as the twelfth round of strikes on Iranian targets, including an elite special forces headquarters in Alborz province and underground storage facilities for ballistic and surface-to-air missiles. Both sides are claiming tactical successes while civil and military casualties mount: Iranian authorities put total casualties since the strikes began at more than 6,000, with roughly 2,500 still hospitalized.

The conflict is spilling from the air into the maritime domain. Tehran’s forces asserted a wartime right to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and announced restrictions on vessels belonging to the United States, Israel and Europe, even as other Iranian outlets said the strait remained open and that actions would target vessels masquerading as merchant ships. The US Central Command reported having struck or sunk more than 20 Iranian vessels, and the IRGC claimed it had hit a US tanker during an early morning action.

Allies and regional states are hedging. European partners have vowed defensive support for Gulf states — notably in air-defence capabilities — while cautioning against escalation. Italy, the UK, France and Germany have discussed aid to Gulf states; Spain is sending a frigate to Cyprus; Australia has deployed assets and crisis teams; and Qatar reported multiple missile and drone impacts on its territory. France has permitted US support aircraft to operate from Istres under the restriction that they not be used for strikes inside Iran.

Washington is preparing for a sustained campaign: US media report the Pentagon is adding personnel and resources to back operations for “at least 100 days” and possibly through September, even as White House officials say deploying US ground forces is not currently planned. At the same time, the US Senate failed to pass a measure requiring the president to obtain congressional authorization before taking further military action against Iran, and reporting suggests US stocks of precision-guided munitions are being rapidly drawn down — a constraint with implications for target prioritization and campaign endurance.

The confrontation is being fought on multiple political fronts. Tehran’s leadership transition remains unresolved — Iran has not yet named a successor to the supreme leader — raising questions about command and cohesion during a period of intense pressure. Hezbollah and other allied militias remain active on Israel’s northern front; Israel has urged civilians in southern Lebanon to withdraw north of the Litani River. The combined military, political and economic effects — from disrupted shipping and higher insurance and energy costs to the risk of wider state and proxy involvement — make the current bout of tit-for-tat strikes dangerous to regional stability and global markets.

Share Article

Related Articles

📰
No related articles found