China opened 2026 with a pronounced rebound in goods trade: total imports and exports for January–February reached RMB 7.73 trillion, an 18.3% year-on-year gain, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs. Policymakers and companies point to coordinated government support, recovering global demand and vigorous activity among private exporters as the main drivers of the early-year “good start.”
Exports led the recovery, rising 19.2% to RMB 4.62 trillion, supported by continued strength in higher-value manufacturing and faster-growing new business models. Imports climbed 17.1% to RMB 3.11 trillion, with Chinese New Year consumption and restocking after holiday-related slowdowns cited as important near-term factors.
A breakdown by trade mode shows a mixed but broadly healthy picture: general trade expanded 13.5%, processing trade grew 19.3%, and bonded logistics surged 36.9% — a sign that cross-border supply chain activity and trade-in-goods-in-transit are picking up. These patterns suggest not just cyclical demand but also structural adaptation in how Chinese firms integrate with global value chains.
Regional trade dynamics underline a clear diversification trend. Trade with ASEAN rose 20.3% and with the EU 19.9%, while commerce with Belt and Road partners collectively expanded about 20% to RMB 4.02 trillion. By contrast, trade with the United States fell sharply, down 16.9% to RMB 6,097.1 billion, reflecting either sectoral shifts, geopolitical frictions, or both.
The composition of exporters matters: private firms carried much of the momentum, with their aggregate imports and exports up 22.8% to RMB 4.51 trillion. State-owned enterprises and foreign-invested firms also grew but at more modest rates, highlighting private-sector dynamism as a continued engine of external trade growth.
Analysts quoted by official channels point to four converging factors behind the “open-door” rebound: marginal improvement in global demand, targeted domestic policy support for foreign trade, China’s industrial strengths in both new and traditional sectors, and strong micro-level business activity. They caution, however, that escalating geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions remain significant downside risks to sustaining momentum.
For Beijing the early trade surge provides political and economic breathing room: strong external demand helps stabilize overall growth at a time when domestic consumption and investment face soft patches. It also reinforces narratives about China’s resilience and the benefits of deepening institutional openness for trade and investment.
Yet the drop in trade with the United States and the prominence of bonded-logistics growth are reminders that China’s external trade picture is being reshaped — by policy, by corporate strategy and by geopolitics. Whether the positive opening two months evolve into a full-year pattern of “stable volumes and higher quality” trade will hinge on global demand trends, the management of geopolitical tensions, and Beijing’s further policy calibration to support exporters.