Eleven days into a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the conflict shows no sign of abating even as its political costs at home mount. Iranian authorities say more than 1,300 civilians have died and Tehran has launched what it called the ‘‘most intense’’ military response since the fighting began, striking targets across the region and threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
A classified briefing for Senate Armed Services Committee members on March 10 provided the clearest window yet into Washington’s trouble persuading its own lawmakers. Democratic senators emerged publicly furious: they complain the White House has failed to set out a coherent strategic objective, an exit plan or credible answers on how the narrow strikes will prevent Iran from posing a future nuclear or regional threat.
The political shock is visible in polling. Multiple surveys conducted after hostilities began show only about a quarter to just under a third of Americans supporting the campaign — far below the levels that accompanied past U.S. wars. The gap between elite and public opinion is widening into a political problem: Democrats are demanding oversight and threatening to obstruct Senate business if their questions are ignored.
The domestic strain is compounded by fractures on the right. Most Republican lawmakers still back the campaign, but the conservative media ecosystem that fuels former President Donald Trump’s base is split. High-profile commentators who have turned on the intervention — including prominent ex-Fox hosts — argue the war is neither in America’s interest nor popular with its voters, exposing a rift in MAGA-aligned circles.
On the ground, the conflict is disrupting commerce and civilian life across the Gulf. Iranian forces said they struck multiple vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and regional maritime agencies reported attacks on ships near the chokepoint. Two drones fell near Dubai’s airport, wounding civilians and prompting airlines to cancel flights to the Emirate, signalling renewed volatility for Gulf aviation and logistics.
Markets have responded. Global shipping through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz — a conduit for a substantial share of seaborne oil exports — has been constrained and oil prices spiked, turning what began as a tactical military response into a broader economic risk. Republican strategists worry rising fuel costs will blunt the party’s midterm campaign pitch on the economy.
Washington’s officials, pressed in the briefing, conceded limitations: the air campaign will not eliminate Iran’s nuclear material and ‘‘regime change’’ was not on the table. That candidness mitigated isolated domestic fears but angered lawmakers who contend the administration has no clear pathway to stabilise maritime routes or to define a realistic end-state.
The immediate consequence is political: low public support, intraparty tensions in Washington, and a fraying conservative consensus that undercut the administration’s latitude for escalation. Strategically, the campaign risks entrenching Iran as a long-term adversary in the region, complicating U.S. relationships with Gulf partners and exposing global markets to prolonged instability.