Twelve days into the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the confrontation shows no signs of abating. Iranian authorities say more than 1,300 civilians have died and have announced what they call the most intense military response since the war began, while attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Gulf states have spread the conflict across the region.
Behind closed doors in Washington, the administration’s case for the campaign is failing to persuade key lawmakers. A classified briefing for Senate Armed Services Committee members prompted sharp rebukes from Democratic senators who say the White House cannot clearly explain why the United States initiated the war, what its long-term objectives are, or how long it intends to fight. Senators complained the plan is incomplete, that air strikes will not eliminate Iran’s nuclear material, and that officials have no credible plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz safely.
Public opinion, unusually for an early-stage U.S. war, has turned decisively against the operation. Recent polls conducted by Reuters/Ipsos and Gallup put support for the campaign in the high twenties while opposition is significantly larger. Commentators have contrasted that tepid approval with near-universal backing for the 2001 and 2003 interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, arguing that Americans are more skeptical this time about the value of another prolonged Middle Eastern war.
Republicans still largely back the administration, but fissures are widening inside the party. Elements of the MAGA media ecosystem and prominent conservative figures have criticized the campaign as unnecessary or overly influenced by Israeli priorities, and a vocal minority of right-wing commentators have lobbied the president against escalation. Those disagreements complicate the White House’s effort to present a united domestic front and raise the prospect that elite conservative opposition could bleed into wider GOP fracture ahead of the midterm cycle.
The conflict is also disrupting global trade and aviation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, naming a Thai-flagged bulker and a Liberian-flagged freighter as targets and warning that ships linked to the United States, Israel or their allies could be attacked. Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring passengers and prompting carriers such as KLM to suspend flights to the emirate for days, underscoring the wider economic and logistical ripple effects of the fighting.
Energy markets and Gulf states are bearing the economic cost. Commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf has slowed and oil prices have risen as traders price in greater geopolitical risk. U.S. officials are scrambling to find measures to stabilize markets while Republicans fret that higher fuel costs could blunt their economic messaging to voters.
Military officials admit they underestimated the ferocity of Iran’s response and have adjusted plans accordingly, from hurried embassy evacuations to contingency measures aimed at containing broader escalation. For now, however, neither a clear end state nor a durable plan to secure critical maritime chokepoints has emerged from Washington, leaving lawmakers and markets to weigh the growing human and economic costs of a conflict that may yet extend far beyond the region.