China’s National Bureau of Statistics data for February 2026 points to a tentative stabilisation in housing prices across 70 large and medium-sized cities even as year‑on‑year falls continue. Month‑on‑month declines in new and second‑hand residential prices narrowed, with the aggregate picture driven by divergent performance among the four first‑tier cities and continued weakness in lower‑tier markets.
New‑home prices in the four first‑tier cities moved from a 0.3% monthly fall in January to broadly flat in February. Beijing and Shanghai recorded modest month‑on‑month gains of 0.2%, Guangzhou held steady, and Shenzhen posted a 0.3% drop. In second‑ and third‑tier cities new‑home prices fell 0.2% and 0.3% month‑on‑month respectively, each squeeze in the decline equating to a 0.1 percentage‑point improvement versus January; the number of cities reporting flat or rising new‑home prices increased relative to last month.
Second‑hand housing showed a similar monthly pattern. Prices in first‑tier cities fell 0.1% month‑on‑month, a narrowing in the rate of decline; Beijing and Shanghai bucked the trend with increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.5% and 0.4%. Second‑ and third‑tier second‑hand prices slid 0.4% and 0.5% month‑on‑month, again with smaller declines than in January.
The year‑on‑year picture, however, remains weak. New‑home prices in first‑tier cities were down 2.2% compared with February last year, a slight widening of the annual drop. Shanghai was a notable outlier, reporting a 4.2% annual rise in new‑home prices while Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen recorded declines of 2.3%, 5.1% and 5.5% respectively. New‑home prices in second‑ and third‑tier cities fell 3.1% and 4.0% year‑on‑year. Second‑hand prices are deeper in negative territory: first‑tier second‑hand prices were down 7.6% year‑on‑year, with Beijing and Guangzhou among the hardest hit.
The statistics release included methodological notes: the new‑home series is compiled from comprehensive local online contract (net‑signing) data, second‑hand prices come from broker and platform reports and field pricing, and from January 2026 the comparison base was switched to 2025. The bureau estimated the base‑year rotation had a negligible average effect on the year‑on‑year indices (around 0.03 percentage points or less).
For policymakers and markets the signal is mixed. The narrowing month‑on‑month declines suggest that short‑term price pressure may be easing, helped by seasonal factors and a stream of local purchase incentives and mortgage concessions introduced over the past year. Yet the persistent annual falls — especially in second‑hand transactions — reflect weak underlying demand, elevated inventories in smaller cities and the long tail of developer balance‑sheet stress.
What happens next matters beyond the property sector. Housing remains a major component of Chinese household wealth and local government revenue through land sales. A soft housing market depresses construction activity, consumer spending and commodity imports, and continues to pose risks to banks and to interlinked shadow financing channels. Expect Beijing to stay pragmatic: further targeted demand support, selective credit relief for distressed developers and measures to revive transaction volumes rather than a broad, unconditional stimulus.