The National Bureau of Statistics’ February figures show the first clear signs of stabilisation in China’s property market: month-on-month price declines narrowed across 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities where new-home prices rose or held steady expanded markedly, and new-home prices in first-tier cities stopped falling. Beijing and Shanghai recorded month-on-month gains in both new and second-hand home prices, reversing part of the long leg down that has weighed on growth and financial-sector sentiment.
The detailed data are nuanced. Of the 70 cities tracked, 17 saw new-home prices rise or remain flat in February, nine more than in January. New-home prices in first-tier cities moved from a 0.3% month-on-month fall to flat overall; Beijing and Shanghai each posted a 0.2% monthly increase while Guangzhou was unchanged and Shenzhen slipped 0.3%. Ten cities registered monthly increases in new-home prices, led by Changchun, Nanjing and Yichang at 0.3%.
Second-hand markets showed a similar, if uneven, picture. Month-on-month declines narrowed in first-tier cities to 0.1%, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while Guangzhou and Shenzhen continued to fall. On a year-on-year basis the picture remains soft: first-tier new-home prices were down 2.2% and second-hand prices fell 7.6%, underscoring that the recovery is early and geographically concentrated.
Analysts point to several drivers behind the tentative rebound. Market watchers cite a seasonal pickup in demand after the Lunar New Year, a pullback in supply in some new-launch pipelines, adjustments in developer discounting strategies and a stream of targeted policy measures. Local relaxing of purchase restrictions and better access to mortgage or provident-fund loans — most prominently Shanghai’s recent “Seven Measures” — have been singled out as catalysts that have helped unlock suppressed demand in big cities.
The wider significance is material. China’s property sector has been the dominant engine of construction, investment and household balance-sheet wealth for decades. Even small improvements in transaction volumes and price stability in megacities can reduce near-term risks to banks, shore up local government finances tied to land sales, and support household confidence and consumption.
That said, the recovery is fragile and uneven. Year-on-year declines remain large in many places, smaller cities still lag, and parts of the rebound look seasonal or policy-driven rather than broad-based. Developers remain cautious after years of deleveraging and some have already cut incentive schemes, which can produce short-term price upticks without resolving underlying demand and affordability imbalances.
Looking ahead, authorities appear likely to continue a pragmatic, targeted approach: calibrating local easing, nudging banks to ease mortgage access for qualifying buyers and allowing more flexible use of housing funds. If higher transaction volumes in core cities persist into spring and policy support holds, a modest “small spring” recovery could take root; if sales fade or stress among weaker developers widens, the market will revert to a more protracted adjustment phase.