For months, the global investment narrative has been dominated by a singular, high-octane trade: the American AI infrastructure chain. Yet, as the frenzy reaches a fever pitch, leading Chinese analysts are beginning to signal a tactical retreat. Chen Guo, Chief Strategy Officer at East Money Research Institute, suggests that the market’s current obsession with a handful of Silicon Valley giants has reached a point of 'extreme polarization' that demands an immediate rebalancing toward more resilient assets.
The logic behind this shift is rooted in the inevitable cooling of capital expenditure. While the U.S. AI CAPEX chain saw growth rates hitting 80%, historical cycles suggest a sharp deceleration is imminent, with projections falling below 20% within the next 18 months. This trajectory mirrors the peak of the electric vehicle bubble in late 2021, where the focus narrowed to the most expensive upstream components just before a broader market correction took hold.
Institutional skepticism is further fueled by mounting operational and regulatory headwinds facing top-tier AI labs. Companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are navigating a complex landscape of surging losses, internal 'price wars,' and increasing protectionism that restricts their global service reach. Furthermore, tech titans like Meta are already signaling a move toward internal model development to curb spiraling costs, potentially cannibalizing the very third-party AI market that investors are currently betting on.
Within the Chinese domestic market, this 'rebalancing' strategy advocates for a pivot away from crowded tech trades toward undervalued sectors. Chen points to domestic AI supply chains, non-bank financials, and traditional energy as fertile ground for capital rotation. As global sentiment fluctuates between euphoria and hesitation, the window to capture these 'rebalanced' gains is narrowing, offering a strategic advantage to those willing to look beyond the immediate noise of the AI sector.