China’s Market Schism: Why Strategists Are Doubling Down on Old Energy and New AI

China's equity markets are experiencing a sharp split as AI infrastructure gains momentum while traditional 'non-silicon' assets face a liquidity-driven sell-off. Leading strategists remain bullish on undervalued brokerages and high-yield coal stocks, citing strong fundamentals and historical valuation lows.

From above of industrial machine with conveyor belts digging and transporting coal in daylight

Key Takeaways

  • 1The Sci-Tech 50 index surged 3.84%, highlighting a massive influx of capital into AI infrastructure.
  • 2Traditional 'non-silicon' assets are being sold at a discount due to passive liquidity pressures from dividend-seeking investors.
  • 3Brokerage firms are trading at historical valuation lows (PB below 90% of historical time) despite record-high ROE since 2022.
  • 4Coal sector fundamentals remain strong with Q2 earnings for major firms expected to grow by nearly 100% year-on-year.
  • 5Strategists anticipate a significant 'expectations gap' for the second half of 2026, favoring a recovery in undervalued sectors.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

The current volatility in the A-share market reveals a sophisticated shift in Chinese domestic investment strategy. The 'non-silicon' sell-off is not a rejection of quality, but a byproduct of a crowded trade in dividend assets being unraveled by liquidity needs. For global investors, the 'spring-loaded' metaphor used by Chen Guo for the brokerage and coal sectors suggests that the market is currently mispricing industrial stability in favor of technological speculation. This creates a window where traditional sectors, bolstered by massive earnings growth and disciplined supply-side fundamentals, may actually offer more reliable alpha than the high-flying AI sectors in the short-to-medium term.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

The A-share market in mid-2026 has become a tale of two realities. While artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to lure capital with the promise of a digital-first future, high-quality traditional assets—the so-called 'non-silicon' stocks—are facing a paradoxical sell-off. This divergence reflects a broader tension in Chinese equity markets: a frantic chase for technological growth versus the underlying resilience of industrial fundamentals.

On June 18, the divergence reached a tipping point. As the Sci-Tech 50 index surged by nearly 4%, traditional power and financial sectors lagged, weighed down by what analysts describe as passive liquidity pressure. Investors exiting dividend-yielding assets to cover other positions have inadvertently put some of China's most robust companies on sale at discounted valuations.

Chen Guo, Chief Strategist at East Money, argues that this sell-off is a liquidity-driven anomaly rather than a fundamental shift toward a bear market. He points specifically to the non-bank financial sector, particularly brokerages, which are currently trading at price-to-book ratios lower than 90% of their historical data. Despite these low valuations, their return on equity has hit multi-year highs, suggesting a spring-loaded recovery is imminent.

The bullishness extends to the 'old energy' sector as well. Despite market fears of a coal production glut, thermal coal prices remain steady and coking coal continues an upward trajectory. With mid-year earnings for major coal firms projected to double compared to last year, the sector represents a high-certainty play in an otherwise volatile environment, anchored by a high-growth, high-sustainability outlook for the latter half of the year.

Share Article

Related Articles

📰
No related articles found