Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, long considered a masterclass in resilience, is facing its most existential challenge yet. A new poll released by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Agam Labs research institute reveals a precipitous drop in the Prime Minister’s approval rating, plummeting from 40.5% in early March to a staggering 29.4% by late June. This data underscores a widening trust crisis that threatens to upend the Israeli political landscape just months before the scheduled October general elections.
The disconnect between the Prime Minister’s rhetoric and public sentiment has reached a breaking point regarding the country's military operations. While Netanyahu has consistently touted significant gains on the battlefield, the Israeli public remains largely unconvinced. A striking 72.5% of respondents stated they no longer believe the Prime Minister’s declarations, and over half characterize his military management as either a failure or poor. This skepticism suggests that the rally-around-the-flag effect, which often shields leaders during wartime, has almost entirely evaporated.
Paradoxically, while the public is disillusioned with Netanyahu’s leadership, they appear increasingly hawkish regarding Israel's regional adversaries. Nearly half of the population now supports a large-scale military offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, even if such a move triggers a diplomatic or military confrontation with the United States. This indicates a growing appetite for escalation that outpaces even the current government's aggressive posture, placing Netanyahu in a difficult pincer between a wary Washington and a restless domestic base.
On the international front, the poll highlights a profound misalignment between Israeli public opinion and the Biden administration's regional objectives. More than 63% of Israelis oppose any potential nuclear or diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran, with only a sliver of the population supporting such a deal. This collective hardening of views on Iran complicates the White House's efforts to de-escalate Middle Eastern tensions and suggests that any successor to Netanyahu would likely maintain a similar resistance to U.S.-led diplomacy.
Despite the dismal polling data and the shadow of a looming trust crisis, the Likud party has signaled that Netanyahu has no intention of stepping aside. Party officials recently confirmed that he will lead the ticket in the upcoming elections, seeking to extend his record-breaking tenure. However, with the public deeply skeptical of his military credibility and the country facing potential multi-front escalations, the path to a viable coalition has never looked more treacherous for the man once dubbed King Bibi.