# dot plot

Powell Faces an Oil Shock: Markets Expect a Hold — The Real Drama Is the Dot‑Plot and Economic Forecasts

Markets expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50–3.75% at its next meeting, but attention has turned to the dot plot and updated forecasts as an oil‑price shock from the Iran conflict raises the risk of renewed inflation. How Jerome Powell frames the trade‑off between growth and inflation will determine whether markets read the meeting as a postponement of easing or a signal that policy will stay tighter for longer.