China closed 2025 with a mixed energy picture: coal production edged down in December, oil output held broadly steady, natural gas output continued to grow, and overall power generation rose modestly. The National Bureau of Statistics’ figures for “scale‑above” industrial enterprises show a market still balancing short‑term demand, winter pressures and the longer‑term shift toward lower‑carbon fuels.
In December, coal production by large industrial firms was 440 million tonnes, a 1.0% year‑on‑year decline, with cumulative output for January–December at 4.83 billion tonnes, up 1.2% versus 2024. Crude oil production remained largely flat: December output was 17.8 million tonnes (down 0.6% year‑on‑year), while full‑year output rose about 1.5% to roughly 216 million tonnes. Refining activity accelerated, however: December crude processing climbed 5.0% year‑on‑year to about 62.5 million tonnes, and the 2025 total processing volume grew 4.1%.
Natural gas production continued to register steady gains. Large industrial producers delivered about 23 billion cubic metres in December, a 5.1% increase year‑on‑year, and 2025 aggregate output reached roughly 262 billion cubic metres, up 6.2%. Those increases underline the continuing substitution of gas for coal in some sectors and the rising role of gas in heating and industry amid efforts to improve air quality in winter months.
Power generation by large industrial firms rose slightly in December, with monthly output at about 858.6 billion kWh, up 0.1% year‑on‑year; the full year reached approximately 9.72 trillion kWh, a 2.2% increase. The composition of that growth shows contrasts: thermal (coal) power fell 3.2% in December, while hydro, nuclear, wind and solar all grew — by 4.1%, 3.1%, 8.9% and 18.2% respectively — but their growth rates decelerated versus November.
Those sectoral shifts reflect seasonal patterns, short‑term hydrology and grid dynamics as much as structural change. The slowdown in growth rates for hydro, wind and solar generation compared with the previous month likely owes to base effects, variable weather and constraints on grid integration, not a reversal of investment in renewables. The decline in thermal generation in December, even as overall coal output dipped only marginally, points to stronger competition from gas and non‑fossil sources in power dispatch.
Two important caveats accompany the statistics: the data cover only “scale‑above” industrial enterprises (annual main business revenue of RMB 20 million or more), and the statistical scope changes year to year. The bureau adjusts comparative figures to preserve comparability, but those methodological notes are relevant when mapping the release directly onto national totals or forecasts.
For international observers and markets, the headline is cautionary rather than dramatic. China has kept coal production broadly stable while allowing gas and refining activity to expand, and power demand growth remains modest. That pattern is consistent with a managed transition in which energy security and economic activity are balanced against decarbonisation commitments and seasonal air‑quality controls.