Japan recorded a sharp fall in visitors from mainland China in January, with arrivals down 60.7% year‑on‑year, data released by the Japan National Tourism Organization shows. The slide accelerates a trend visible in December, when the decline was 45.3%, and reflects a sudden contraction in one of Japan’s most valuable inbound markets.
The reduction in Chinese tourists contributed to a 4.9% year‑on‑year drop in total foreign arrivals in January — Japan’s first monthly decrease in four years. The shortfall in visitors has already translated into weaker spending: department store duty‑free sales at chains such as Mitsukoshi Isetan, Takashimaya and Daimaru Matsuzakaya were down more than 10% year‑on‑year in January, and hotel cancellations surged over the Lunar New Year.
Japanese media and analysts have pointed to recent inflammatory remarks on Taiwan by leading Japanese politician Sanae Takaichi as a catalyst for the downturn, a narrative amplified in Chinese coverage. Private booking data from Tripla show that cancellations of hotel bookings from China during this year’s Lunar New Year reached 53.6%, up 14.9 percentage points from the previous year — a clear indicator that geopolitical sensitivities have translated quickly into travel behaviour.
The immediate economic consequences are concentrated in retail, accommodation and dining — sectors that rely heavily on Chinese tourists’ spending and seasonal peaks. Trade associations and department store executives have voiced concern that the “severe” conditions could persist, underlining how politically driven shifts in sentiment can deliver rapid, concentrated shocks to local economies that had only recently recovered from pandemic disruptions.
Beyond the near term, the episode underscores the fragility of tourism‑led recovery strategies. A sustained reduction in Chinese visitors would force Japanese businesses to recalibrate marketing, pricing and product mixes, while the government may face pressure to pursue diplomatic damage control or domestic stimulus for affected regions. For now, the path forward depends on whether political tensions prove transitory or escalate into broader state‑level measures that further deter travel.
Policymakers and industry watchers will be monitoring a small set of indicators — restoration of booking volumes from China, Chinese government guidance to travellers, and any reciprocal regulatory steps — to judge whether this slump is a temporary boycott or the start of a longer reorientation of East Asian tourism flows. In the short term, Japan’s consumer sectors face a test of resilience as they seek to offset a sudden loss of high‑spending visitors.