For decades, China’s demographic hierarchy was dominated by the political and economic giants of the east coast. However, a significant shift is underway as Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province, rapidly closes the gap with Beijing. Recent data reveals that Chengdu’s permanent population reached 21.53 million by the end of 2025, adding 61,000 residents in a year, while Beijing’s population contracted to 21.8 million. The gap between the two, which once stood at 5 million, has narrowed to a mere 265,000.
This demographic convergence is not a result of Beijing losing its economic luster, but rather a consequence of divergent policy mandates. Since 2014, Beijing has aggressively pursued 'de-population' measures to address 'big city diseases' like congestion and water scarcity. By capping its population at 23 million and relocating non-essential functions, Beijing’s core districts have seen a reduction of over 2 million residents. In contrast, Chengdu has adopted a 'zero-threshold' residency policy, positioning itself as a welcoming haven for talent and labor.
Chengdu’s rise is underpinned by its elevation within China’s national strategy. Designated as a key node in the 'National Strategic Hinterland' and the 'Cheng-Yu Twin City Economic Circle,' the city has transformed into a high-tech industrial hub. These designations, often referred to as China’s 'Fourth Pole' of transportation and growth, provide the infrastructure and policy tailwinds necessary to absorb the population flowing away from both the coast and rural Sichuan.
Beyond the rivalry with Beijing, Chengdu’s growth highlights the 'Strong Provincial Capital' strategy that is becoming the norm across inland China. While Sichuan province as a whole saw its population decline by 460,000 last year, Chengdu continued to grow. This illustrates a 'reservoir' effect where the capital city acts as a moat, capturing regional labor that might otherwise migrate to the Pearl or Yangtze River Deltas, thereby preserving the province’s economic vitality.
Even Chongqing, which nominally boasts a population of over 31 million, tells a similar story of internal consolidation. Though the municipality’s total population is shrinking due to a low birth rate, its urban core continues to expand. This trend across the Chengdu-Chongqing corridor suggests that China’s future growth will be increasingly concentrated in a handful of 'megacity clusters' that serve as the last line of defense against a nationwide demographic winter.