The era of guaranteed sell-outs for China’s 'blind box' king, Pop Mart, may be reaching a turning point. The recent release of 'The Monsters Retro Barber Shop' vinyl plush series, featuring the popular Labubu character, failed to ignite the usual consumer frenzy. Unlike previous launches that vanished from shelves in seconds, this latest collection remained available post-launch, with secondary market prices for several models falling below their retail value—a rare occurrence for a brand built on scarcity and hype.
This cooling demand arrives as Pop Mart (09992.HK) grapples with the 'high base' effect of its own success. Following a stellar performance in 2025, where revenue grew by over 180% and net profit nearly quadrupled, the company is now facing the mathematical reality that such hyper-growth is unsustainable. Management has signaled a shift in tone, with Chairman and CEO Wang Ning describing 2026 as a 'pit stop' year focused on maintenance and optimization, setting a more modest growth target of 20%.
Market data underscores the shifting tide. Third-party tracking shows that Pop Mart’s online sales across major platforms like Tmall and Douyin experienced their first monthly decline in May, dropping 5% year-on-year. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have noted that the waning heat of core Intellectual Properties (IPs) and the pressure of last year’s high benchmarks will likely weigh on the company’s performance throughout the second half of the year.
In response, Pop Mart is aggressively diversifying its portfolio to move beyond simple figurines. The company is expanding into lifestyle and experiential sectors, including theme parks, dessert chains like Pop Bakery, and high-end jewelry under its Popop brand. These moves suggest a strategic pivot from a toy manufacturer to a broader cultural entertainment group, aiming to capture a larger share of consumer discretionary spending as the 'mystery box' novelty fades.
Institutional interest remains mixed but active. Renowned investor Duan Yongping recently adjusted his stake through H&H International Investment, increasing his long position to 6.88%. However, his simultaneous increase in short positions to 2.02% suggests a sophisticated hedging strategy, reflecting a cautious optimism toward the brand’s long-term value tempered by concerns over near-term market volatility.