The expiration of stock lock-up periods for Zhipu AI and MiniMax on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has provided a stark reality check for the valuation of China’s leading large language model (LLM) developers. While Zhipu AI shares climbed over 20% across two trading sessions, MiniMax suffered a bruising 18% decline on its first day of unrestricted trading. This divergence signals a shifting investor sentiment that favors institutional stability over consumer-facing volatility.
The primary driver behind this performance gap lies in the composition of the unlocking shares. Zhipu’s unlock was relatively modest, involving cornerstone investors who largely signaled their intent to hold long-term positions. In contrast, MiniMax faced a massive influx of liquidity as pre-IPO shareholders, representing nearly half of the company's total equity, were finally permitted to exit their positions.
Beyond the technicalities of share structure, the two firms are navigating vastly different commercial trajectories. Zhipu has successfully pivoted toward a high-growth cloud API model, with its annual recurring revenue from its Model-as-a-Service (MaaS) platform growing sixty-fold over the past year. This enterprise-centric approach offers a more predictable revenue stream compared to the project-based localized deployments that previously dominated the sector.
MiniMax, once lauded for its asset-light consumer strategy, is currently grappling with tightening social regulations in China. New government mandates restricting virtual intimacy services for minors have directly targeted the company’s core AI companion applications. While MiniMax is pivoting toward AI-generated video and multimodal platforms, the regulatory uncertainty has clearly spooked institutional investors looking for long-term safety.
Both entities are now pursuing a dual-listing strategy, seeking a foothold in mainland China’s A-share market to hedge against geopolitical and offshore market risks. Zhipu’s IPO preparation is already in the final stages of acceptance, while MiniMax is exploring the issuance of RMB-denominated shares. These moves reflect a broader trend of strategic listings for Chinese tech firms seeking state-backed capital and domestic recognition.
As the initial hype surrounding foundational models cools, the market is demanding a clear path to profitability. Both Zhipu and MiniMax recorded widening losses in 2025 despite triple-digit revenue growth, highlighting the immense capital intensity of the AI arms race. The ultimate survival of these firms will depend on their ability to transition from subsidized research labs to self-sustaining commercial entities.