As China moves past the pandemic era and the deep adjustment in real estate, policymakers and companies are recalibrating where growth will come from in 2026. Beijing has for the first time made “substantially raising the household consumption rate” a core task of the new five‑year cycle, extending earlier subsidy programmes for durable goods while shifting fresh policy emphasis toward services and experience‑led consumption.
That policy pivot matters because the marginal returns from replacing old refrigerators or cars are shrinking; the bigger incremental opportunity is in soft services — health, education, leisure and higher‑value personal services — where households repeatedly spend and form habits. At the same time, not all consumers are equally likely to loosen their purse strings. Younger adults, especially many in Gen Z, remain cautious: employment uncertainty and rapid technological change have driven a wave of defensive saving and “reverse consumption” online.
The groups most likely to underpin China’s consumer recovery are not the cash‑light trendsetters of Shanghai cafés but two older cohorts with sizeable assets and bolstered purchasing power. The first is women aged roughly 35–55. Data from a 2025 PCG survey shows women dominate household consumption decision‑making: 80.6% of families report female‑led purchase choices, 93.5% of surveyed women control their own income, and 81.5% say they are the main household spending decision‑makers. Three‑quarters participate actively in family financial planning, and mothers hold a clear lead in education choices for children.
These middle‑aged women came of age in the comparatively prosperous reform era, often have strong education and career records, and now control significant family wealth. Their consumption behaviour mixes rationality and emotion: they are sceptical of marketing hype and demand scientific proof of efficacy, yet many treat purchases that deliver self‑care or status as “emotional utility” worth paying a premium for. The beauty and skincare sector exemplifies this shift. Market research firms report roughly a 10% CAGR for China’s anti‑ageing market through 2025–26, with functional cosmetics making up more than 45% of new skincare filings. Brands are responding by centring clinical evidence and dermatological authority in online content rather than glossy storytelling.
The second cohort is the 60‑plus population, and particularly the 60–75 “new elders” who were the first generation to reap reform‑era asset gains. High home‑ownership rates, accumulated savings and growing digital literacy have transformed this group into a powerful consumer segment. By mid‑2025 there were some 161 million internet users aged 60 and up, and analysts estimate the silver economy’s market scale in the trillions of yuan. Older consumers are buying travel, learning, healthcare and leisure services, often via e‑commerce and social platforms; digital-native marketing and community models have unlocked spending that was previously constrained by distribution and awareness.
Entrepreneurs and investors are noticing. Start‑ups that combine social engagement with paid services have scaled rapidly by selling meaning and belonging as much as products. Examples include platforms that monetise classroom‑style learning and peer groups for older users, and retirement clubs that package curated travel and experiences led by respected retired officials or volunteers. These models rely on trust and reciprocity: older consumers prefer vetted networks and personal recommendations over mass advertising.
For brands and foreign entrants, the lesson is clear: the profit centre in China’s near‑term consumer market lies not with ephemeral viral hits but with populations that have both assets and time. Middle‑aged women seek products and services that save time, demonstrate measurable benefits and restore confidence; older consumers want structured social offerings, health‑adjacent services and trustworthy digital pathways to spend. Both cohorts reward authenticity and social proof, and both have high lifetime value once trust is established.
This does not mean a permanent retreat from youth marketing. Gen Z will remain a cultural bellwether, but commercial strategies that rely only on capturing fleeting online attention are riskier in a low‑growth macro environment. Winning in 2026 requires deeper investments in product evidence, regulatory compliance, community building and after‑sales trust — initiatives that are slower and costlier than chasing trends but generate stickier revenue streams.
Policymakers are likely to support this reorientation. The state has signalled a willingness to expand subsidies toward services, and it has eased foreign participation in healthcare and biotech sectors that serve older consumers. That regulatory opening creates opportunities for partnerships on clinical trials, certified services and higher‑end care, but it also raises the bar for entrants that must now meet professional and ethical standards to win this market’s confidence.
China’s consumption landscape in 2026 will therefore be defined by a trade‑off between velocity and durability. Younger cohorts offer high velocity and publicity; older, asset‑rich cohorts offer durability and depth. For firms and investors, the strategic choice is becoming less about which demographic is more fashionable and more about which one will generate sustained, trust‑backed revenue streams over the next decade.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.