Alibaba’s Qianwen Escalates Spring Festival Subsidy War — 3 Billion RMB Pushes AI from Chat into Commerce

Qianwen has launched a 3 billion yuan Spring Festival campaign, enlisting multiple Alibaba ecosystem services to offer free orders and large cash red packets aimed at turning AI from a chat tool into a transactional assistant. The push comes amid competition from rivals such as Yuanbao, which offered 1 billion yuan in red packets, and marks a broader pivot by Chinese platforms to embed AI into everyday commerce during the high-spend Lunar New Year period.

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Key Takeaways

  • 1Qianwen announced a 3 billion yuan Spring Festival campaign featuring free-order subsidies and large cash red packets, launching Feb. 6.
  • 2Alibaba ecosystem services — including Taobao Flash Sale, Fliggy, Damai, Hema, Tmall Supermarket and Alipay — will participate in the promotion.
  • 3Qianwen is moving AI from conversational use to transactional scenarios; AI-driven movie-ticket purchases are in grey testing and shopping links already appear in queries.
  • 4Rival Yuanbao offered a competing 1 billion yuan red-packet giveaway, illustrating intensified platform competition over the Lunar New Year.
  • 5The campaign aims to create habit-forming ‘ask-AI-to-buy’ behaviour but raises questions about subsidy sustainability, merchant economics and regulatory attention.

Editor's
Desk

Strategic Analysis

This campaign is less about the immediate promotional windfall than about long-term habit capture and data accumulation. By tying AI to payments and marketplace inventory across Alibaba’s stack, Qianwen seeks to become the default intermediary between consumers and commerce. If successful, that intermediary role could deliver persistent advantages: richer, transactional data to improve AI models, higher lifetime value per user and stronger cross-selling across travel, retail and food. But the approach depends on two fragile propositions: that continuing subsidies can be sustained long enough to change behaviour at scale, and that regulators will tolerate the data concentration and market dynamics this creates. Competitors will be forced to respond, likely with their own subsidy and integration plays, which could erode margins across the sector. For smaller merchants the immediate benefit of traffic may be offset by rising commissions or pressure to participate in promotional mechanics they cannot absorb. Policymakers and investors should watch whether this seasonal contest evolves into a structural re-routing of consumer flows through AI assistants — and whether that re-routing is commercially viable without perpetual subsidy.

China Daily Brief Editorial
Strategic Insight
China Daily Brief

China’s spring-sales season has been given an early and unmistakable shove into the age of generative AI. On Feb. 2 the Qianwen app announced a 3 billion yuan (about $420m) “Spring Festival Treat” campaign that promises widespread “free-order” subsidies and large cash red packets across consumption categories, and said it will marshal Alibaba’s ecosystem — Taobao Flash Sale, Fliggy, Damai, Hema, Tmall Supermarket and Alipay among them — to participate in the offensive.

The campaign, which is scheduled to go live on Feb. 6, positions Qianwen not merely as an experiment in conversational AI but as an active transactional layer for everyday spending. The firm has already embedded shopping links in some queries (movie-ticket lookups now surface a purchase entry) and is grey-testing an AI-driven movie-ticket buying function. Qianwen’s public messaging and insiders’ comments make clear the objective: move AI from “chat” to “do” in concrete, high-frequency consumer scenarios.

The announcement follows a competing splash from a rival platform, Yuanbao, which rolled out a 1 billion yuan red-packet giveaway that quickly saturated social feeds. That juxtaposition — a smaller, fast-moving subsidy from Yuanbao and a larger, ecosystem-backed push from Qianwen and Alibaba — highlights an intensifying mid-winter contest for consumer attention and habit formation.

For Chinese platforms the Lunar New Year is the battlefield for customer acquisition and retention. It is a period when households plan travel, entertainment and bulk purchases; a successful campaign can deliver weeks of elevated engagement and years of ingrained behaviour. By offering “免单” (free orders) across food, tickets, travel and retail, Qianwen and its partners hope to train users to turn to an AI assistant first when they want to buy something or book an experience.

The strategic logic is clear. Subsidies convert attention into transactions; transactions produce data that can be used to refine recommendation models and personalise service; personalised service strengthens user lock-in and cross-sell opportunities across the Alibaba stack. Embedding purchase capabilities inside AI interactions closes the loop between discovery and checkout, potentially raising conversion rates and reducing friction for consumers.

There are, however, obvious trade-offs. Heavy subsidy schemes are expensive and compress already thin margins in many consumer services. They invite copycat responses from rivals, potentially triggering a subsidy arms race that hurts smaller merchants and squeezes platforms’ profitability. The use of an AI layer to capture and reroute consumer spending also raises questions about merchant economics, data governance and regulatory scrutiny — areas Beijing has shown a keen interest in recently.

In the short term consumers will likely welcome cheaper tickets, meals and goods, and Qianwen’s AI-driven convenience could accelerate mainstream adoption of transactional AI. In the longer run, the campaign will be a test of whether AI assistants can become habitual intermediaries in commerce — and whether the business economics of that role are sustainable without continued subsidies or sharply improved monetisation.

For international observers the episode is a useful proxy for two broader trends: the speed at which Chinese tech platforms are embedding generative AI into commerce, and the enduring centrality of festival-season spending as a tool of platform competition. How this plays out over the coming weeks will help determine which companies achieve first-mover advantages in an economy where attention, data and payments are tightly entwined.

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