Kweichow Moutai’s share price reclaimed the 1,500 yuan mark on February 4, on the back of a broader upswing in China’s premium white‑spirit sector. The stock has risen more than 15% over five trading days, while wholesale quotations for Feitian Moutai have also edged higher from January lows, a synchronised move that has drawn fresh attention to whether the long slump in the baijiu industry has finally turned.
Wholesale prices for Feitian — the category’s most watched benchmark — were quoted at roughly 1,665 yuan per bottle on February 4, up 40 yuan from the prior day and about 125 yuan above late‑January levels. Market participants point to a mix of factors behind the moves: stronger seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, the rollout of Moutai’s iMaotai digital sales channel and a marginally friendlier macro backdrop tied to early signs of loosening in property policy.
History gives some reason for optimism. In previous cycles the bulk wholesale price of Moutai has often been the first to stabilise and then lead a recovery across other high‑end and mid‑premium brands. That pattern underpins the bullish narrative now being advanced by some brokers: if Moutai’s market‑driven pricing and direct‑to‑consumer push are durable, the high end of the market could reassert pricing power and begin to clear industry inventories.
But the case for a durable cyclical turn is far from settled. Several brokerages have issued sharply divergent target prices for Moutai — Huachuang Securities has a bullish 2,600 yuan target while CICC’s model points to 1,860 — signalling wide disagreement over the sustainability of the rebound. More important, the sector still faces structural headwinds: elevated inventories at smaller brands, lingering demand shifts in consumer behaviour, and the need for a broader recovery in discretionary spending beyond festival season bursts.
Financial flows have amplified the price action. As technology and AI names show signs of cooling, some institutional cash has rotated back into beaten‑up consumer staples where valuations and fund allocations are notably low. Fund exposure to the liquor sector slipped from about 5.5% in Q3 2025 to roughly 5.1% in Q4, leaving room for tactical re‑weighting that can momentarily lift prices even without a fundamental recovery.
For investors and policymakers the key question is whether the recent bounce will be confirmed by hard data. Analysts will watch three signals closely: sustained wholesale price levels above the current range (notably a stable annual average near or above 1,600 yuan for Feitian), visible inventory drawdowns across mid‑ and lower‑tier producers, and a broader pick‑up in consumer confidence and spending that is not solely tied to property market quirks or seasonal festivals. Until those conditions are met, the recovery narrative will remain plausibly cyclical or merely technical.
The episode nevertheless matters beyond one stock. Moutai sits at the intersection of China’s luxury consumption, corporate reform and the domestic equity market’s hunt for defensive yield. A durable rebound would be a rare piece of good news for consumer‑facing large caps and could alter short‑term fund flows into the sector. Conversely, a false start would reinforce the message that China’s consumption rebalancing and the baijiu industry’s structural adjustment are longer‑term processes.