With one week to go before Lunar New Year, China’s baijiu trade is staging an extraordinary split: premium Feitian Maotai is selling out and rising in price, while certain regional and mid‑range labels have been dumped onto the market, forcing dealers to cancel orders and eat deposits. Wholesalers and small shop owners describe a frantic end‑of‑year sprint in which fast-moving marquee brands and instant‑retail channels win customers, and everyone else retreats to cash preservation.
Feitian Maotai has seen particularly fierce demand. Retail and wholesale prices for mainstream bottles climbed by roughly RMB 200 in about two weeks, with iMoutai maintaining a controlled 1,499 yuan online offer while offline transactions concentrated in a 1,699–1,999 yuan band. Dealers report days when stores clear multiple cases and some monthly quotas that used to sustain March allocations have been exhausted ahead of schedule.
The supply and pricing picture for less exalted labels has been starkly different. One regional product, marketed as a budget “Yuan‑Xi” table wine, collapsed after the factory suddenly released tens of thousands of boxes; wholesale prices fell by several dozen yuan a box overnight, prompting dealers to forgo deposits and cancel sizeable orders to limit larger losses. The swift supply surge and price transparency of online platforms amplified that fall.
A second major axis of change is channel behaviour. Big supermarket chains that have signed up to instant‑retail services such as Meituan Flash Sale are undercutting traditional independent liquor shops. Reported prices for well‑known bottles in Guangzhou show platform flash prices trailing both in‑store promotional tags and neighbourhood alcohol merchants by double‑digit percentage points, and items bought via the platform can sell out within hours.
That competitive pressure has altered merchant tactics. Where some retailers once stocked dozens of cases to chase seasonal margins, many now keep only a handful of boxes and rely on peer networks or ad‑hoc transfers to fill orders. Several wholesalers say they will not risk multi‑hundred case purchases even for brands that sold well in the past; the watchword is ‘cash is king’ rather than speculation on short‑term price moves.
The result is an accelerated reshaping of the baijiu market. Large, brand‑led producers that can control releases and supply hold relative advantage, and retailers with access to platform fulfilment can become price leaders even without lower production costs. Mid‑tier and regional producers are more exposed to sudden inventory decisions and the transparency of instant retail that exposes price gaps and drains smaller players’ margins.
This year’s year‑end turbulence matters beyond seasonal fortunes. It underlines how platformisation and price transparency are reordering China’s consumer goods distribution, concentrating bargaining power among brand owners and large retail platforms while squeezing independent outlets. For policymakers and companies alike, the question is whether manufacturers will reinstate tighter release discipline, whether platforms will face scrutiny for driving destructive price competition, and how smaller channel players will reposition to survive a market where speed and cash liquidity increasingly determine who profits.