Policy & RegulationAnalysis

China Plans Carbon Market Expansion to Petrochemicals and Chemicals

The national emissions trading scheme will broaden beyond four existing sectors to cover roughly 80 percent of China's carbon dioxide emissions.

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The Brief

China will expand its national carbon emissions trading market to include high-emission industries such as petrochemicals and chemicals during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Building on existing coverage of power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, the expansion is intended to bring roughly 80 percent of the country's national carbon dioxide emissions under regulatory control. Officials also reported that cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market surpassed 930 million tonnes by late July.

Why it matters

Broadening China's emissions trading scheme to heavy process industries like petrochemicals and chemicals represents a major step in the country's decarbonization architecture. By expanding market coverage to roughly 80 percent of domestic emissions, policymakers are increasing compliance costs for energy-intensive sectors, accelerating technology retrofits, and reinforcing domestic carbon footprint accounting ahead of tightening international carbon trade standards.

China context

The move aligns with China's transition toward dual control of total emissions and emissions intensity as it prepares for its 2030 carbon peak and 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution goals. It comes alongside broader shifts in the domestic energy mix, where coal-fired power generation accounted for less than 50 percent of total output for the first time in the first half of the year, providing room for accelerated industrial decarbonization policies.

Editor's View

EDITOR'S VIEW — Analysis and inference, not factual reporting. Bringing petrochemicals and chemicals into China's emissions trading market is both a structural necessity and an administrative challenge. Unlike the power sector, where baseline heat rates and emission metrics are relatively uniform, chemical synthesis involves diverse feedstocks, complex multi-product streams, and intricate process emissions. The success of this expansion will largely depend on the precision of carbon accounting guidelines and benchmark allocations, which must balance meaningful decarbonization incentives with the commercial realities of primary manufacturing.

What to watch

  • Draft accounting guidelines and benchmark allocation plans for petrochemical and chemical enterprises released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment
  • Trading liquidity and allowance price movements on the national carbon exchange as new sectors enter compliance cycles
  • Progress on aligning domestic carbon footprint standards and certification systems with international trade mechanisms

Key Takeaways

  • 1The Ministry of Ecology and Environment confirmed the national carbon market will expand to include petrochemical and chemical sectors.
  • 2The inclusion of additional heavy industries aims to cover around 80 percent of China's carbon dioxide emissions.
  • 3Cumulative trading volume in China's national carbon emissions trading market surpassed 930 million tonnes by the end of July.
  • 4The ministry will strengthen carbon accounting, product carbon footprint standards, and certification mechanisms to support supply chains and manage cross-border carbon regulations.
  • 5Coal-fired power generation fell below 50 percent of total national electricity output for the first time during the first half of the year.
China will expand its national carbon emissions trading market to cover petrochemicals, chemicals, and other high-emission sectors, according to statements made by officials from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment at a State Council Information Office briefing. Speaking on the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment Li Gao outlined that the national emissions trading scheme will build upon its current coverage—which spans power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting—to encompass chemical manufacturing and refining. The expansion is designed to bring approximately 80 percent of China's total carbon dioxide emissions under regulatory oversight. According to data shared by the ministry and reported by People's Daily, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market had exceeded 930 million tonnes by the end of July. Officials emphasized that market mechanisms will play a central role in guiding green investment and ensuring that emissions carry a tangible economic cost while low-carbon projects generate financial returns through the national voluntary reduction market. Alongside sector expansion, the ministry noted that work will accelerate on carbon footprint standards, verification infrastructure, and product-level labeling. These measures aim to support green supply chains and address emerging cross-border trade barriers linked to carbon intensity. The policy roadmap forms part of the State Council's broader 15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China. Ecology and Environment Minister Huang Runqiu noted that the upcoming five-year period marks a transition toward integrated pollution control, carbon reduction, and ecological management. Environmental indicators from January to July showed continued gains, with national average PM2.5 concentrations falling 6.2 percent year-on-year to 1.8 micrograms per cubic meter lower than the prior period, while the share of coal-fired electricity generation fell below 50 percent for the first time in the first half of the year.