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A sharp one‑day rally in Chinese liquor stocks on January 29 masks deeper distress: most baijiu producers reported steep 2025 profit declines, and Yanghe’s decision to abandon a RMB 7bn minimum dividend exposed the fragility of dividend‑backed valuations. The sector faces a rebalancing driven by saturated distribution channels, weaker cashflows and tighter profitability, with 2026 likely to bring consolidation and more conservative payout policies.
