At the end of January, Moutai's new Horse-year zodiac release—a second-cycle offering nicknamed “Ma-Mao”—unexpectedly became the industry's litmus test. A printing error on the packaging prompted an official response, but the more telling development was market movement: resale dealers saw offers tumble by about RMB500 within three days, and the once-ravenous aftermarket appetite sputtered.
Moutai's product and pricing choices help explain the thaw. For the first time the company launched two versions: a Classic at RMB1,899 (roughly $260) and a Premium at RMB2,499 (roughly $340). The Classic cut its price by RMB600 from last year while retaining the usual spirit quality, and the Premium is a higher-grade blend assembled from about 200 base barrels. Management framed the dual strategy as “lower price, preserved quality; same price, upgraded quality.”
On the distribution side, Moutai has been deliberately surgical. The Classic is released daily through iMoutai, increasing access for genuine buyers and narrowing the gap between retail and secondary prices—the Classic's resale premium has shrunk to roughly RMB200. The Premium uses time-segmented drops timed around major festivals, keeping scarcity without triggering the concentrated sell-offs that feed speculative spikes.
This is not merely inventory management. The Ma-Mao episode is a visible sign that Moutai is trying to strip zodiac bottles of their financialized aura. In recent years limited runs plus a rising liquor market turned zodiac releases into quasi-investment vehicles, with some bottles fetching multiples on the secondary market. Moutai has countered by boosting direct-channel allocation and stabilising its price anchors—most notably the flagship Feitian bottling hovering near its RMB1,499 guide price—reducing the arbitrage that fuels speculation.
The company’s 2026 marketisation plan codifies the strategy: zodiac releases sit in the middle “waist” of Moutai’s product pyramid and are being repositioned to encourage consumption and cultural collecting rather than pure investment. That shift, if sustained, could make the zodiac line a longer-lived brand asset rooted in cultural resonance and drinking experience rather than short-term trading profits.
Short-term risks remain. Offline distributors say allocations have been slow to arrive, eroding the seasonal sales window around Lunar New Year. Some Premium pre-sales already show price softening, and memories of the previous cycle—where one zodiac release swung from mania to crash—make traders and dealers cautious. Across the industry, non-top-tier firms’ zodiac launches have become perfunctory: smaller runs, cancelled events and scant promotion indicate the space is maturing and polarising.
Viewed more broadly, Ma-Mao’s cooling is a microcosm of China’s premium baijiu sector shifting from rapid expansion to higher-quality growth. When speculative margins are compressed, the conversation returns to drinking and culture—the core propositions of a spirit brand. For consumers this means more reasonable access; for Moutai it is a strategic bet that long-term brand equity and controlled scarcity will outcompete short-term resale gains.
If Moutai balances scarcity with broader access and repairs channel logistics, the zodiac series could become a resilient middle product that supports both everyday consumption and meaningful collecting. If not, delayed supplies or renewed speculative episodes could reintroduce volatility. For now, the market is testing whether China’s most famous liquor house can manage the trade-off between cultural stewardship and market exuberance.