China Records Extreme July Weather as El Niño Intensifies Forecast for August

China experienced extreme weather in July 2026, registering its second-highest average monthly temperature on record alongside record-breaking daily rainfall at 15 national meteorological stations in the north. According to the National Climate Center, an intensifying El Niño event is driving these abnormal climate conditions. Authorities warn that August will bring elevated risks of heavy rainfall, severe heatwaves, and typhoons, with major river basins in northern and southern China facing heightened flood pressures while parts of the northwest face ongoing drought.

As July and August mark China's peak flood season and peak summer heat, the co-occurrence of record rainfall in the north and nationwide high temperatures highlights the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. These climate extremes pose significant challenges to flood defense, energy grid stability, agricultural production, and disaster management across multiple provinces.

During a press conference held on August 4, 2026, the China Meteorological Administration revealed that China recorded its second-highest monthly average temperature for July since records began, according to state news agency Xinhua. The heat was accompanied by intense localized rainfall, with 15 national meteorological stations in Northern China breaking historical daily precipitation records, as reported by China News Service. Speaking at the briefing, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, attributed much of the climate volatility to a rapidly strengthening El Niño pattern. As reported by National Business Daily, ocean monitoring indicates that the El Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index reached 1.60°C in June—an increase of 0.64°C from May—and consistently exceeded 2.0°C starting in the second pentad of July. Weather officials anticipate the phenomenon could develop into a strong or super eastern-type El Niño event, reaching its peak during autumn or winter before gradually dissipating by spring or summer of 2027. Under the influence of this intensifying climate pattern, climate authorities expect August to bring above-average precipitation, elevated heat, and increased typhoon activity across China. The eastern half of the country is projected to experience more severe flooding than drought, with flood risks particularly concentrated in the Songliao, Haihe, and Pearl River basins. Conversely, parts of Northwest China face persistent drought risks. Temperature forecasts indicate that most regions will experience higher-than-average temperatures in August. Temperatures in parts of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Chongqing, Xinjiang, and several other provinces are expected to be 1°C to 2°C above historical norms. Meteorologists have identified four distinct heatwave periods expected in August: August 7–9, 11–14, 22–25, and 29–31. Looking ahead into autumn, precipitation is expected to remain above normal across eastern and southwestern China, while temperatures in northern and southern regions are projected to stay noticeably warm.