China Foresees Record El Niño as Officials Warn of Winter Cold Waves

China’s National Climate Center warns that an ongoing El Niño event is poised to become the strongest on record, with equatorial central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies projected to peak between 3.2°C and 3.5°C around November. The warming rate already exceeds historical super El Niño events recorded in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. While El Niño cycles generally correlate with warmer regional baselines, Chinese meteorological officials urged northern provinces to prepare for episodic, intense cold waves that could severely strain winter heating and power supply systems.

The projected sea surface temperature surge threatens to eclipse the previous record anomaly of 2.8°C, posing major operational challenges for China's power grids, heating reserves, and agricultural output. Cross-seasonal lagged impacts during the decaying phase could trigger volatile drought-to-flood transitions in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, complicating hydroelectric dispatch and food production.

The equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is undergoing rapid warming that could culminate in the strongest super El Niño event since meteorological records began, according to briefings by the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center. National Climate Center Director Chao Qingchen stated that sea surface temperature anomalies in the primary monitoring region are projected to continue rising, peaking around November 2026 in the range of 3.2°C to 3.5°C. That level would significantly surpass the prior record peak of 2.8°C observed during the 2014–2016 event. Only three super El Niño events have been documented previously—in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. Chao noted that both the current sea temperature index and its rate of warming noticeably exceed conditions observed during comparable periods of those historical cycles. China officially registered an El Niño state in May 2026 after sea surface temperature anomalies met the national threshold of exceeding 0.5°C for three consecutive months. The monitoring index averaged 2.09°C across the summer months and reached 2.59°C in August. By September, five-day pentad readings pushed past 3.0°C for the first time on record, averaging 2.94°C between September 1 and 25. Chief forecaster Gu Wei observed that the rapid development of the phenomenon already amplified domestic weather disruptions over the summer. Rainfall across central and eastern China followed an irregular distribution characterized by heavy precipitation in the northern and southern extremes alongside drier central zones, compounded by anomalous typhoon activity. In Zhejiang province, three separate typhoons made landfall in the exact same coastal subdistrict within a 50-day window. Looking ahead, Chao cautioned that the climatic footprint of a super El Niño involves significant seasonal lag, with the most severe domestic disruptions typically emerging during the decaying phase the following year. However, immediate operational risks loom for the coming months. Addressing reporters from the Daily Economic News, Chao advised authorities to closely monitor the impact of periodic severe cold waves on winter heating supply in northern China. For the subsequent summer, meteorologists warn that an intensified western Pacific subtropical high will likely funnel warm, moist air into southern China, raising the risk of severe waterlogging for rice and rapeseed crops along the Yangtze River basin, while northern agricultural belts in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain could face heatwaves and drought.